OK, on to Oscars. I try to make my Oscar picks based on who or what I think will win a particular category, not who or what I think should win, although sometimes I do make a picks that are not considered consensus favorites. I go for underdogs sometimes, but underdogs that actually have a reasonable chance of pulling off an upset in my view.
My picks are determined by my own impressions of the films and individual performances, the results of other major Award events, and which way I think the Academy Members will lean on particular categories. I think the voters for the Academy tend to be a bit more conservative than the voters for some of the other major Awards so I give that some weight.
I’ve seen many of the films nominated for major awards this year, but not all them, most notably Zero Dark Thirty, which I definitely plan to see, but have not seen yet. I have seen Argo, Lincoln, Django Unchained and Silver Linings Playbook.
Best Picture
Argo I think several other 2012 films were better than Argo, including The Dark Knight Rises, which wasn’t even nominated. But the support for other films seems to be fragmented so Argo has become the safe pick. I only gave Argo a 7/10 on IMDb. I thought it was a very solid film, but not great.
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln. This is a sure bet. Can’t go any other way imo.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty. I know I am going against the grain here. Jennifer Lawrence seems to have the momentum behind her, as well as the Weinstein PR machine. However, I Chastain has a real chance to upset. I like Lawrence a lot as an Actress, but I just didn’t think her performance in SPL was Oscar worthy. I thought JL’s Oscar nominated performance in Winter’s Bone was much more riveting. I think Chastain, while still young, is more than decade older than JL and has put in a lot more work as an actress and paid her dues in a way JL has not yet and I think the Academy may recognize that.
Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln. My favorite for this award is Christoph Waltz for his performance in Django, but Waltz won this award just a few years ago so I think the Academy is going to favor Jones, who also turned in a strong performance. Jones is also a past winner of this award, but his previous win goes way back to The Fugitive, in 1993.
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway Almost as much of a sure bet as DDL for Best Actor.
Original Screenplay
Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
gmf journal 