UFC 157: Rousey vs. Carmouche at Anaheim, CA

Posted on by georgefattell

There are two fights I am really interested in on this card:

1) The Main event, featuring the fight female fight in the UFC, as former Strikeforce Bantamweight Champ Ronda Rousey (6-0) takes on former U.S. Marine Liz Carmouche (8-2).

2) The Light Heavyweight battle between Dan Henderson (29-8) and Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (18-3)

Ronda Rousey is a huge favorite (-1200) over Carmouche (+775) and that is probably justified because no female fighter has come close to defeating RR as she has won all six of her fights in the first, using her Olympic level judo skills to secure arm bars vs all her previous opponents. It is hard to see how Carmouche will avoid the same fate. Carmouche lost a 3 rd decision to Rousey’s last opponent, Sarah Kaufman. It took Rousey only 54 seconds to defeat Kaufman. It will be impressive if Carmouche can take this fight past the first round. All that said, Rousey better not take Carmouche too lightly, because Carmouche has delivered TKO’s vs. four opponents.

I don’t think Rousey will underestimate Carmouche. There is lot riding on this fight for Rousey and the UFC.

Rousey by Submission, 2nd round.

Henderson vs. Machida is a great fight on paper, matching up two of the very best Light Heavyweights in the UFC. Machida is a favorite at -220 vs +170 for Henderson, but this fight could very easily go either way because both fighters have proven that they have the ability to deliver
KO’s. Hendo has put 13 opponents to sleep, while Machida has done the same to 7 opponents. Machida is the best pure martial artist in the UFC and Henderson has demonstrated that he is very dangerous as both a striker and a wrestler (He represented the U.S. in the Olympics as a Greco-Roman wrestler).

This fight is a very tough call me because both fighters are so skilled and I also like both fighters. They are both class acts. However, I’m going to have to pick Machita to win because he is still in his prime at 34, while Henderson is in the twilight of his career at age 42. To be fair, I must say that there really hasn’t been much of a noticeable decline in Henderson’s ability yet, but Henderson is coming off a knee injury and has not fought in a year. I think ring rust for Henderson may give Machita an advantage. Machita, with his karate influenced fighting style, has also demonstrated that he can be very elusive in the Octagon and that may enable him to avoid Henderson’s vaunted overhand right, known as the H-Bomb.

Machita wins by decision.

Here and There

Posted on by georgefattell

Well, it has been a couple of weeks since I lasted anything posted on this blog. No particular reason for that, I’ve just been busy with a variety of small projects and I have been out and about a lot the last few weeks. However, there are quite a few topics I want to put my two cents in on including, but not limited to, the following:

UFC
NBA
NFL
THE ACADEMY AWARDS
U.S. POLITICS
THE NEXT POPE
PLANES
TRAINS
&
AUTOMOBILES
AND OTHER ASSORTED TOPICS.


I’ll start with the UFC, since there is a big UFC event on tap for this evening. That would be UFC 157 in Anaheim, CA.

The 49ers vs The Ravens – My Super Bowl XLVII Prediction

Posted on by georgefattell

San Francisco 49ers (Jim Harbaugh) vs. Baltimore Ravens (John Harbaugh)

New Orleans, LA

San Francisco is favored by 3 1/2 points.

OK, I have been thinking about this game all week and I have been going back and forth on who I think will win. I think the 49ers have correctly been installed as the slight favorite by Vegas and that makes this game a very tough call. These two teams really are pretty evenly matched, at least on paper. Of course, it may be a blow out, one way or the other. That is the way Super Bowls often go, but I don’t think this one will be one of those games. The Harbaugh brothers certainly know each other and respective teams very well.

I don’t have a bias toward either team. I respect both teams for fighting through the playoffs to finally reach the Super Bowl, but I honestly can’t say that I have ever been a big fan of either franchise, although I did admire the 49ers of the Joe Montana/Bill Walsh era. But that was long, long ago and this 49er team is totally different. Earlier this week I posted a tweet predicting that the 49ers would win by 7. I been wondering if I should change that pick while I still can. I have read the scouting reports and predictions of quite a few sports writers and football analysts for this game. I’d say roughly 2/3’s are picking the 49ers, but a lot of good arguments have been made for both teams. Both QB’s are strong passers, both teams have good WR’s and are capable of putting a lot points on board. Both teams have good RB’s and TE’s. Both have good defenses. However, I think the 49er offense is less predictable and QB Colin Kaepernick is a real X factor in this game because of his dynamic running ability. The Ravens QB Joe Flacco is also a capable runner, but he primarily a drop back passer. Flacco can do a lot of damage if he is given time to throw because he throws the deep ball extremely well. In the end I think the game may decided by the Ravens offensive line. If they can protect Flacco well the Ravens have a good chance of winning this game, but that will be a difficult task because the 49er front 7 are ferocious.

I’d like to just say let the best Harbaugh win, but that would be taking the easy way out.

No, I’m going to stick with original my pick.

The 49ers win by 7

NFL 2013 Playoffs – Conference Championships

Posted on by georgefattell

On to the Conference Championship games. I really like all four of the remaining teams in the playoffs. No real weak links in this group. It is very possible that any of these teams could advance to the Superbowl and win. My prediction record for the playoffs thus far if 5-3, both in picking game winners and vs. the spread. Hopefully I can improve my winning percentage, but it will not be easy because, as I have noted, these teams appear to be fairly close in overall ability.
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NFC Championship Game: San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) at the Atlanta Falcons (13-3)


San Francisco is a -4 favorite.

I don’t think there are very many teams that can beat the Atalanta Falcons at home right now. I thought the Seattle Seahawks was capable of doing it and they came darn close. I think San Francisco is another team that has the weapons needed on both offense and defense to stop the Falcons, but it won’t be easy. Atlanta has a very potent offense, with really good players at all the skill positions, led by QB Matt Ryan, who has had an outstanding season thus far. Ryan and Joe Flacco of the Ravens were both drafted 5 years ago and there were high expectations for both of them. Both of them now seem to be living up to expectations.

SF QB Colin Kaepernick also has some pretty high expectations because of this spectacular play since he was installed as the 49er’s starting QB at mid season. As opposing teams see more of Kaepernick they will no doubt devise better ways of defending him, but he seems to prototypical next gen QB, who can both pass and run with great effectnivess. I don’t think Kaepernick is going to run all over the Falcons D, in the way that did against Green Bay last week, because Atlanta will be ready for his runs, but totally stopping Kaepernick will prove to be very difficult. SF, like all the teams remaining at this point have multiple threats on offense. SF also has a very tough defense and it is especially adept at shutting down the run. If the 49er D limits the damage that Falcons RB Michael Turner can do, it could be a key advantage.

Here is the bottom line, I think Atlanta’s defense will have a more difficult time stopping the SF offense than SF’s defense will have with Atlanta and that will give the advantage to the 49ers.

I see SF winning by 7.

AFC Championship Game: Baltimore Ravens at the New England Patriots

New England is a -8 favorite.

These two teams know each other very well and I think it unlikely that we will see a real high scoring game. I have to give the edge to the Patriots at home, but I think the point spread is still wide. It think the point started out at -9 1/2 or -9 for the Patriots, but it has come into -8, which I still think is too wide. If NE still had the services of All-Pro TE Rob Gronkowski I could see making the Patriots 9 or 10 pt favorites, but he is gone and that takes away a big scoring threat. Of course, NE has a lot of other talented players on offensive, including their other very talented TE, Aaron Hernandez, so I’m sure Belichick and his staff will come up with a game plan that compensates for the absence of Gronkowski. However, I think the resulting NE attack will likely be more run heavy and therefore the scoring may not be quite as prolific as it usually is for the Patriots. Running the ball more and eating up more time would probably be beneficial for NE, even if they had Gronkowski, because I they want to keep the ball away from Ravens QB Joe Flacco, who has proven that he can be a very dangerous passer, just ask the Denver Broncos. But there is more to Baltimore’s offense than just Flacco, RB Ray Rice is a big threat as both a runner and receiver. NE’s defense is much improved over last year, but they will still have their hands full trying to contain the Raven’s offense.

I think this game could very easily be decided by 7 points or less. So, I think NE wins this game, but I if I were betting on this game I would take the Ravens and the points. Still, I can’t say i would want to make anything but a small bet on this game.

POST PLAYOFF COMMENTS:

Here comes the Harbaugh Bowl.

I can’t say I was very surprised by the outcome of the 49er/Falcons game. I picked SF to win, but they only won by 4 (Thx David Akers). So, I got the winner correct, but the bet would have been a push. The Falcons had a great 1st half, but they collapsed in 2nd half and lost by 4. The Falcons will no doubt regret this loss because the game was within reach for them.

The Ravins victory did surprise me, although I thought Baltimore was the smart bet with 8 points. Turns out that you could have had NE and 8 points and you still would have lost. How many fans would have made that bet? Probably the vast majority, including many in Baltimore. I knew that the absence of Rob Gronkowski would hurt NE, but I thought they could compensate for his loss. Well, I won’t say it was impossible to win without Gronk, but the Patriots really could have used him today. The loss of the Patriots best CB, Talib, during the 1st half also proved to be costly as Joe Flacco went to work on the NE secondary.

My overall prediction record for the 2013 playoffs now stands at 6-4 and 6-3-1 vs the spread.

The Super Bowl: San Francisco has been started out as a 5 point favorite over Baltimore. I think that line is a little wide and I would not be surprised if it narrowed by a point or a point and a half by game time.

My favorites photos of 2012 – Part I

Posted on by georgefattell

I recently reviewed the pictures I took during 2012 and tried to pick my 10 favorites, but I had a hard time doing that and I am still sorting them out and ranking them. However, there are 4 or 5 I definitely like a lot and I have posted them. I did not travel outside San Diego too much during 2012, so most of my pictures were taken in and around SD. I may add some more, but for right now here are the pictures that made the cut…

F-22 Raptor at the MCAS Miramar Air Show 2012
F-22 Raptor at the MCAS Miramar Air Show 2012
The Lily Pond in Balboa Park, San Diego
The Lily Pond in Balboa Park, San Diego
Shell Beach in La Jolla, CA
Shell Beach in La Jolla, CA
The USS Higgins leaves Home Port San Diego
The USS Higgins leaves Home Port San Diego
Del Mar, CA
Del Mar, CA
The Hotel Del with Christmas Lights, Coronado, CA
The Hotel Del with Christmas Lights, Coronado, CA

NFL 2013 Playoffs 2nd Round Predictions

Posted on by georgefattell

Here are my Second Round Picks. I don’t have time to write much analysis today, so I’m just going to put them out there.

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
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Denver is a -9 1/2 favorite

This could be high scoring battle, but I expect the Broncos to prevail at home.
Peyton Manning was a legit MVP candidate this year and the beating the Broncos in Denver is a very tall order.

Broncos win by 10.

Green Bay Packers (11-5) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)

San Francisco is a -3 favorite.

I think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will pull off the upset. Rodgers is the best QB in the league and I think Green Bay will score just enough to win this game. The 49er defense won’t give up points easily. It is the 49er offense that I have my doubts about because I’m not convinced that 2nd year QB Colin Kaepernick who was 5-2 during the regular season will be as successful in the playoffs.

Packers win by 3

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

I think this a very tough game to call. Seattle is one the very the few teams in the league that as a chance to beat Atlanta at home and I am going to pick to the Seahawks to upset here. Seattle was one of the best teams in the league during the second half of the season. Seattle has big, physical cornerbacks that can slow down the Falcons dangerous passing attack and I think that will be a key to victory. The Seahawks also have a very potent offensive weapons in star rookie QB Russell Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch.

Seahawks win by 3.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Patriots are -9 1/2 favorites

The Texans have had a great year, but I don’t think I would pick any team in the league to beat the Patriots at home right now. The Texans are a good team on both sides of the ball, but I just don’t think they will be able to keep up with the Patriots, who have a lot of weapons for Tom Brady to choose from now that All-Pro TE Rob Gronkowski is back.

The Patriots win by 10

POST 2ND ROUND COMMENTS:

Hmmm, gotta rethink a few things before making my picks for next week. I went 1-3 in the second round, although 2-2 versus the spread.

I was right about Denver and Baltimore scoring a lot points, I just got the outcome wrong. Baltimore’s defense is not nearly as good as it was a few years back, but now that the Ravens have a real offense the defense does not have to totally shut down the opposition in order for them to win. If Ravens QB Joe Flacco is playing well Baltimore can compete with any team in the league.

I was clearly wrong for doubting the capabilities of SF QB Colin Kaepernick. Count me a believer in that guy now. I was well aware that Kaepernick has a lot of raw talent, but I thought his relative lack of experience would catch up with in the playoffs. Wrong. If Kaepernick plays as well next week against the Falcons the 49ers will be going to the Superbowl for sure. The Falcons should be very concerned about Kaepernick’s running ability, which shredded the Packer’s D. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, who is also a very dangerous runner, was able to run for 60 yards and a TD against the Falcons, in addition for passing for over 300 yards. Kaepernick revealed in an interview with Terry Bradshaw after the game he can run a 4.43 in the 40 yard dash. That is almost as fast as RG3. I knew he was fast. but I didn’t know he had that kind of blazing speed.

The Seahawks mounted a very impressive 2nd half rally in Atlanta and nearly stole the game from the Atlanta Falcons, who were up 20-0 at half time.

The Patriots vs Texans game was the only game that went pretty much played out as I expected it to, with the Patriots easily winning by 13. NE will very tough to beat at home next week, but the Ravens will be a very formidable opponent, one that fully capable of pulling off an upset.

NFL 2013 Playoffs 1st Round Predictions

Posted on by georgefattell

Cincinnnati Bengals (10-6) at Houston Texans (12-4)

Texans are -4 1/2 favorites

The Bengals are definitely an up and coming team, but I don’t think they will beat the Texans at home.
Houston is a well rounded team and if they play to their potential they should be able to handle to the Bengals.

Texans win by 7
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Packers are -7 1/2 favorites

I expect this game to be a very tough battle, but in the end I cannot pick against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field in January.

The Pack wins by 10.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Ravens are -6 1/2 favorites

The Colts have been extremely impressive under the leadership of star rookie QB Andrew Luck. I’m sure Luck and the Colts will win a lot of playoff games, but not this year. I think this veteran Ravens team will prove to be too strong for the upstart Colts in Baltimore.

Ravens by 10

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Washington Redskins (10-6)

Seahawks are -3 favorites

Wow, this game pitting star rookie QB’s Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III against each other is the toughest game to call this weekend in my opinion. I think RG3 had the best season of all the rookie QB’s, but Wilson and Luck have both been nearly as good. Both defenses are very good, but Seattle appears to be the hottest team in the league right now.

Seahawks by 7.


POST 1st Round comments: My picks worked out well, 4 for 4, 3 out of 4 vs. the spread, although I would concede that the 1st round games were relatively easy to pick. It will get a bit more challenging in second round because I think at least 3 out the 4 “away” teams have a good chance to win, especially the Seattle Seahawks.

UFC 155 – Las Vegas: Predictions

Posted on by georgefattell

The UFC ends 2012 with a pretty good card in the Vegas. I noticed that some mma fans are a little disappointed in the overall quality of this card because some big names had drop out due to injury, but think this card is still very appealing and has the potential to provide very competitive fights. The top four fights are all fairly close in terms of odds, there are no overwhelming favorites. I think the oddsmakers have it right. I have decided who I think is going to win these fights, but I can’t say I would want to go “all in ” on any single fighter who will be action in the top four fights. Without further ado, here are my picks:

Heavyweight Championship:

Champion Junior Dos Santos (15-1) vs. former champ Cain Velasquez (10-1)

This is rematch. The first time these two met Cain was the HW Champ, but he didn’t leave the Octagon as champ because Dos Santos KO’d him at the 1:04 mark of the fight. Dos Santos is simply the best boxer, by far, in the UFC HW division. Dos Santos trains with Team Nogueira in Brazil and has a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Dos Santos claims he is capable of handling himself on the ground if he gets taken down, but no HW that he has faced in UFC has been able to get him down and keep him there, and he has already faced some fighters with very good take down skills, such as Shane Carwin, Frank Mir and Gabriel Gonzaga.

Velasquez was an excellent NCAA DIV I wrestler at Arizona State, placing 5th in the U.S. in 2005 and 4th in 2006. He later moved on to train at American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) in San Jose, where he has developed a strong mma skill set, and has added boxing, muay thai and Jiu Jitsu to his mma arsenal. Velasquez also fights at a very fast pace and up until he met Dos Santos it did not seem that any UFC HW could beat him. He was, of course, undefeated in the UFC, before that first fight with JDS. However, Dos Santos was the first really high caliber striker that Velasquez had faced and he clearly wasn’t able to defend against the barrage of strikes were thrown at him.

Cain may indeed have the better all around mma skill set, but will he have an opportunity to use all his skills? I don’t think he will. I think Dos Santos will once again use his exceptional boxing and takedown defense to keep this fight standing and in the end Velasquez will not be able to fend off Junior’s powerful strikes.

Dos Santos wins by KO, 2nd round.

Lightweight: Joe Lauzon (22-7) vs. Jim Miller(21-4)
This might be the most competitive fight of the night. Both of these fighters are very well rounded and have complete mma skill sets, but Jui-Jitsu is a strength for both. Miller is also a good wrestler. He wrestler at the high school level in Sparta, New Jersey and later in college, at Virginia Tech. Lauzon is particularly dangerous in the first round. He usually starts at a very fast pace and is always looking for a quick submission. However, Lauzon also takes risks with some moves, leaving himself open to being submitted and he tends to fade in later rounds. Miller is a very durable fighter, with a good chin and high endurance. I think Miller will have the advantage if this fight goes beyond the first round and I think it will because I think Miller is too strong and skilled on ground to be submitted by Lauzon.

Miller by submission, 3rd rd.

Middleweight: Tim Boetsch (16-4) vs. Constantinos Philippou (11-2)

Basically, this breaks down to a wrestler vs. boxer battle. Boetsch is a former NCAA Division I wrestler (Lock Haven University in PA) and is also a Black Belt in Jeet Kune Do. Philippou is a Greek Cypriot who originally pursued boxing before deciding to become a mma fighter. His professional record as a boxer is 3-0, but he also has 60 amateur fights to his credit. After moving to the U.S. he joined the Serra-Longo gym on Long Island and has developed other aspects of his mma game there, including wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, but he still relies heavily on his boxing skills.

Boetsch is a smart fighter and I think he knows he would likely lose this fight if it remains standing and becomes a boxing match. I think Boetsch will attempt to take this fight to the ground and use superior wrestling ability to win this fight. This fight could very well be decided by the effectiveness of Philippou’s takedown defense. Philippou may indeed have good takedown defense, we’ll see. He trains with Chris Weidman, one of the best wrestlers in the UFC at Serra-Longo. Ironically, Weidman was originally scheduled to fight Boetsch at UFC 155, but had to withdraw due to a training injury. I probably would have picked Weidman to win that fight, but I can’t pick Philippou to win against Boetsch because I think Boetsch’s greater mma experience and his more diverse skill set will give him the upper hand.

Boetsch wins by decision.


Middleweight: Alan Belcher (18-6) vs. Yushin Okami (28-7)

This fight presents another rematch. Okami won the first fight between them by decision, back in 2006. Both of these fighters are very well rounded. Okami has a black belt in Judo, but he can wrestle and box well too. Belcher has a background in Kickboxing, Taekwondo, Jiu Jitsu and Judo.
Both of these guys can are capable on their feet or on the ground.
Belcher has won his last four fights and I think he is hotter fighter right now. I expect his win streak to continue.

Belcher wins by decision.