Has Apple peaked?

Posted on by georgefattell

There seems to be quite a bit of alarm about Apple within certain circles on Wall St. and elsewhere in the investment world because the stock (AAPL) is in the midst of significant correction for the first time in 4 years. Some people seem be questioning if the stock has peaked and others, with an even more pessimistic view, may be wondering if Apple has peaked as a company, never to be more dominant than it has been in the last few years. We won’t know the answers to those questions for some time, perhaps even a few years, but I don’t think the stock has peaked and I don’t think the company has peaked either.

As you can see from the chart below, AAPL has had quite a run from 2009 to 2012, when it soared from roughly 100 to 700, powered primarily by the success of the iPhone and the iPad.

Apple Monthly Chart
Apple Monthly Chart

How low will AAPL go? Well, I think it could go to the 375 to 425 range. After stocks and commodities have made extended moves in one direction they more often than not make what technical analysts call a correction and that is usually a price retracement (a move in the opposite direction) of 40 to 60 percent of the original move. It never ceases to amaze me that some people, even some seasoned professional investors, seem to expect stocks like Apple to go up and up for ever, without experiencing any real correction. What is happening to the stock now is natural. All stocks and commodities lose momentum at some point.

How long will AAPL stay down? If I knew that…well, you know how the rest goes. I don’t know exactly, but it may be a long time, even a few years before AAPL exceeds the highs in made earlier this year. However, the stock could make big moves both up and down before it stabilizes. Until the intermediate term technicals turn positive I don’t think it would be a very good idea to go long. So, I would be looking for a positive cross on the weekly MACD and the stochastics as a sign that stock ready to turn back up in a meaningful way.

AAPL Weekly chart Dec 12

I think a major rally that does bring the stock to new highs will require a the introduction a spectacular new product that will serve as the next major catalyst for an upward movement in the stock price. That product might be the long rumored Apple TV or something else that is secret and we know little or nothing about (maybe an Apple version of Google Glass) . I think Apple remains one of the most innovative companies in the world and is very capable of delivering products that will be dominant and disruptive in the market place. CEO Tim Cook is not the dynamic leader that Steve Jobs was, but I do think Cook is a very able leader and that he recognizes that Apple must continue to innovate in order to maintain a preeminent position in technology and entertainment.

iPad/iPhone App reviews

Posted on by georgefattell

Gee, I haven’t posted an iPad app review in long time, but there are a few apps that I have used recently that I would like to post brief reviews of because I think they are quite good. I use these apps on a regular basis and I gave all of them a 4 or 5 star ratings on iTunes. So, here they are:

1) City Maps 2Go – $1.99 *****
This app enables you to download maps of large and midsize cities across the U.S., as well as in other countries. The maps are very well detailed and useful, especially when you go offline. I discontinued my ATT service for my iPad well over a year ago and I go wifi only now, so this app is particularly useful to me now. Are the maps as good as Google maps or Mapquest? No, but they are definitely detailed enough for you to find your way around with.

2) Hotel Tonight – Free ****
This app is a specialized app that provides the user with discounted hotel rates in select cities in the U.S., Canada and Europe (although primarily in the U.K. at this point). However, the rates provided by the app are only for same day/night that you access the app. For example, if you traveled to Los Angeles or New York tommorrow morning and had to stay over for between one and five nights the app would show you hotels that have rooms available at discounted rates for any where between one night and five nights. The hotels would rather rent the rooms at a discounted rate than let the rooms go unoccupied. Of course, there are other travel apps that enable you to make same day reservations, but I like this app because the rates seem to be as low or lower than other those displayed on rival hotel apps and it simplifies the decision process a great deal because the number of hotels featured is usually limited to a fairly small number of quality hotels. I haven’t actually made a reservation with the app yet, but I still look at the hotel listings in the app on a regular basis because I find their hotels descriptions and photos interesting. The company that runs the app only features hotels that members of their staff have stayed at. The descriptions are concise and witty. Hotel locations are provided via Google maps.

3) Snapseed – Free *****
This is an image editing app from Google. It is similar to Photogene and other popular photo editing apps. It has some nice filters like Instagram. It enables you to share photos in a variety of ways and integrates well with Google+. The iOS version of this app was recently marked down to free from $4.99, so you really can’t complain about the price. I really didn’t need this aap because I already have Photogene and Diptic, but when it became available for free I had to give it a try. I like it a lot. The interface is very clean and easy to use.

4) Chart IQ+ – $22.99 *****
The app is designed for professional and advanced stock chartists. I have been a student of technical analysis for a couple of decades and I have used a wide a variety of PC based technical analysis programs and I think this app is compares very favorably to other charting apps and web based charting sites. If you are a professional trader/investor or an individual trader who has a serious interest in technical analysis this app is well worth the price in my opinion. The app integrates with StockTwits and enables you post charts directly to Twitter or post a link to a chart that you have constructed to another site, such as a blog. Real time quotes are available for an additional fee.

UFC Fox 5 – Seattle

Posted on by georgefattell

The UFC returns to free TV on Fox with an outstanding fight card in Seattle. I’m a little pressed for time today, so my analysis will be a little shorter than usual.

The top three fights are of particular interest to me and should be very competitive. I think each fight could go either way. Of course there are favorites for each fight, but each fighter in these fights is experienced, well rounded and dangerous. All are capable of KO’ing their opponent if given the chance.

Welterweight Championship

Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz: Since this is a championship fight it will be 5 rounds. I expect Benson Henderson to successfully defend his belt in this fight. Diaz poses a real threat to Henderson because he is a very skilled striker, but I think Henderson will be prepared for that and he will bring the fight to the ground where he can use his superior wrestling ability.

Henderson wins by TKO, 4th round.

Maurcio “Shogun” Rua vs. Alexander “The Mauler” Gustaffson: I’ve been going back and forth on this fight all week. Gustaffson is one of the hottest young fighters in the UFC and he looks very tough on paper. At 6’5″ Gustaffson will have a definite size and reach advantage over Rua, but I think Rua will try to neutralize that advantage by bringing the fight to the ground. Gustaffson’s take-down defense will be tested and his ability to win the fight may hinge on whether or not he can keep the fight standing for the most part, where his sharp striking could prove to be a problem for Rua. This fight may also come down to conditioning. If Rua is in anything less than top shape I think he will lose to Gustaffson, but based on what I have read about Shogun conditioning he should be well prepared for this fight.

Shogun Rua wins by decision.

BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald: This fight should be a total war because these two truly hate each other and they are both a little crazy. This fight, like Rua vs Gustaffson, pits a seasoned, decorated former champ against a very promising young fighter who is thought to have the potential to be a future champion. In this case I have to pick the young gun, Rory MacDonald. BJ Penn is always dangerous because of his very diverse mma skill set. He can KO an opponent with his hands or his feet and he has pretty much seen it all. I can’t say I will be shocked if he finds a way to defeat MacDonald, but if I had to bet on this fight I would go with MacDonald. MacDonald will have significant size advantage and his conditioning is excellent. MacDonald trains at Tristar in Montreal with GSP so he should be very prepared for what Penn might throw at him. In the end I don’t think that Penn will be able to keep up with the pace that MacDonald will set and I think MacDonald’s wrestling will wear down Penn.

MacDonald wins by TKO, 3rd round.

POST EVENT COMMENTS:

I went 2 and 1 with my picks. I wish I had gone 3 and 0, but given the relative parity of these fighters I will take that.

First off, the fight I was wrong on, which was Rua vs. Gustaffson. As I noted in my analysis, I thought this fight was a fairly even match up. I knew that Gustaffson would present a serious challenge to Rua, but I thought Rua’s experience would give him an edge in this fight. Rua did seem to be in decent condition, but he was pushed throughout the fight by the young Swede. Gustaffson demonstrated that he has added a few new facets to his mma game, most notably good wrestling moves, especially his take downs.

Gustaffson has been mentioned a potential rival to LHW Champ Jon Jones and prior to this impressive victory by The Mauler I thought that talk was premature. I thought Gustaffson might be a couple of years away from being able to seriously challenge Jones, but this fight has changed my mind. I think Gustaffson is ready for Jones now, which is not to say I think he would win. I think Gustaffson would have a legitimate chance to win that fight and he should be given a shot at the Champ sometime late in 2013, assuming that Jones defeats Chael Sonnen, who he is scheduled to fight in April of 2013.

The other two went pretty much as a expected, except that I thought there would be KO’s ending these fights and they both were won by decision.

Benson Henderson defended his LW belt in very impressive fashion with his defeat of #1 contender Nate Diaz. I thought Diaz would have a problem with Henderson’s elite level wrestling and he did.

Rory MacDonald may send BJ Penn back into retirement with his very decisive victory over the Hawaiian mma legend.

MacDonald said he wants a rematch with Carlos Condit, the one man who has beaten him. I hope Condit agrees to that fight because it would be an excellent match-up. Frankly, I’m not sure who would be the favorite, but the odds would be close.

Led Zeppelin goes to Washington

Posted on by georgefattell

I never, ever thought I would see this….Led Zeppelin at the White House receiving medals from the President of the United States.

LZ @ WH

I did not know that Robert Plant, Jimmy Page and John Paul Jones had been invited to the White House to be honored by the President until I saw pictures and videos of the event when surfing news stories this past Sunday. It was one those stories that I had to double check to make sure it was real and it certainly was. The legendary band had been invited to Washington to receive Kennedy Center Honors,along with talk show host David Letterman, actor Dustin Hoffman, ballerina Natalia Makarova and blues musician Buddy Guy.
Now that was an eclectic group.

I have been a huge Zeppelin fan since the early 1970’s. I grew up with them and to this day I can remember running out to get each new Zeppelin album as soon as they came out or listening to new Zeppelin songs on WPLJ in New York. I saw Led Zeppelin in concert at Madison Square Garden in the late 1970’s. They played six nights at the Garden and probably could have sold out about thirty shows. That was one of the first big rock concerts I attended. To be honest, my memory of that concert is a little vague at this point, but I do remember it and I remember what a big deal it was to see the mighty Led Zeppelin. There is no band today that generates the kind of excitement that Led Zeppelin did in their heyday. The tickets to the concert I attended had to be purchased via lottery. Zeppelin used that method of ticket distribution after riots broke out at several box offices during earlier tours. Fortunately, one my friends was able to get his hands on 6 tickets through the lottery. Of course, looking back on it now I feel especially lucky to have seen Zeppelin perform in person because it was only a few short years later that they broke up, after the untimely death of drummer John Bonham.

The actor Jack Black was on hand at the Kennedy Center to introduce various rock performers who played a few Zeppelin songs in tribute to the great band. Black, in addressing the audience at the Kennedy Center, declared Led Zeppelin the best rock band ever, even better than the Beatles and Rolling Stones. Led Zeppelin is my favorite band, but I don’t know if I would go that far. However, I do think it is fair to say that Led Zeppelin is in the same league as the Beatles and the Stones and perhaps one or two other bands that could rightfully be regarded as the rock bands that occupy the top tier of rock and roll.

There is no question that Zeppelin’s music has held up extremely well over the past three decades and their work remains extremely influential. I think Zeppelin’s music is probably more popular today with young people than any other group from the 1960’s or 1970’s.

My favorite Sci Fi films

Posted on by georgefattell

I was originally going to title this post My Three Favorite Sci Fi Films, but I could not settle on just three films. Picking the first two wasn’t all that tough for me. 2001: A Space Odyssey and Blade Runner always stand out in my mind as the two best Science Fiction films ever made. Maybe I should have designated them 1A and 1B. Picking films for the 3 to 10 positions is more challenging for me because I can think of quite a few Sci Fi’s that I think are very good, but just not as good as 1 & 2. There are probably about 20 films I considered for positions 3 to 10, but the films I listed below are the ones that made my final cut, although a few of those might change if I had to draw up this list again in 6 months or a year.

1) 2001: A Space Odyssey
This 1960’s classic is not only my favorite sci fi film, but one of my favorite films of any kind. A fascinating film that explored man’s evolution, the advance of technology and the concept of a supreme intelligence in the universe. One of Stanley Kubrick’s finest, which is saying quite a bit, since all his films were good and some were outright masterpieces.

2) Blade Runner

The rest of my top ten in no particular order:

The Empire Strikes Back
My favorite of the Star Wars films.

Twelve Monkeys

Dune

The Planet of the Apes

Aliens

The Matrix

Forbidden Planet
A classic film with an outstanding cast. Special effects which were state of the art at that time and not surpassed until Kubrick’s 2001.

Robocop
The political satire in this film was absolutely brilliant.
I doubt the upcoming remake will match iconic film.

UFC 154: St. Pierre vs. Condit – Montreal

Posted on by georgefattell

The UFC returns to Montreal and hometown hero Georges St. Pierre returns to the UFC after being out of the sport for 18 months due to the fact that he tore his ACL in December of 2011.

St. Pierre’s fight against Carlos Condit will decide the UFC Welterweight championship and another Welterweight fight on this card may decide who gets the next shot at the Welterweight belt. That fight is Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks. I think those are the two most interesting fights on the card.

Martin “Hitman” Kampmann (20-5) vs. Johny “Big Rig” Hendricks (13-1)


Fighting Styles:

Kampmann: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Muay Thai.

Hendricks: Boxing, Wrestling (Former NCAA DIV I Wrestling champ at 165 pounds, Oklahoma State)

This should be an excellent fight, although I’m not sure how long it will last because fighters can throw very punches and have KO ability. Now, I’m sure they are both aware of that so they may exercise some caution and not just come out throwing bombs, although I think Hendricks will throw his deadly left hand any time he sees an opening.

Kampmann has proven to be a very resilient fighter, who knows how to find ways to win when he is behind. The Danish fighter, training out of Las Vegas with team Xtreme Couture, has developed a very well rounded MMA game. He prefers to keep fights standing in order to use his exceptional striking skills, but he can be dangerous on the ground with his Jiu-Jitsu. Kampmann has won 8 fights by KO and 7 fights by submission.

On paper this seems like a pretty close match up. If I thought that Kampmann could keep this fight standing I would probably pick him to win, but I don’t think that will be the case. I’m going to give the edge to Hendricks because I think the combination of his power punching and his world-class wrestling will prove to be too difficult for Kampmann to defend.

Hendricks wins by KO, 2nd round.

Georges St. Pierre (22-2) vs. Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (28-5)

Figthing Styles:

St. Pierre: Karate, Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Condit: Kickboxing, Muay Thai, Boxing, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

The fight will unify the UFC Welterweight title. Condit has held the title of interim Champ during St. Pierre’s extended absence due to ACL reconstruction surgery. St. Pierre and Condit are two of favorite fighters in the UFC because they both very skilled, well-rounded, intelligent fighters and they are both generally respectful of their opponents.

I think very highly of Condit’s ability. His defeat of the very formidable Nick Diaz really impressed me. That fight showcased Condit’s very well rounded ability as an MMA fighter and it also demonstrated that he is a very smart and disciplined fighter who can stick to a plan to defeat an opponent who in some respects might be more skilled. Diaz wanted to draw Condit into strictly a stand up fight and just trade strikes with him because Diaz has good hands and excels at boxing. Diaz taunted Condit in a number of ways in an effort to get him to just exchange strikes, but Condit used a full repertoire of strikes and kicks to keep Diaz at bay and ultimately won a very hard fought decision.

GSP will present an entirely different type of challenge to Condit. He won’t do any trash talking, but he will try to dictate where this fight goes. GSP is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC and he no doubt try to take this fight to the ground, where his strength and strong wrestling may give him an advantage over Condit. Both fighters are products of the famed Jackson’s MMA, in New Mexico, although Greg Jackson is remaining neutral for this fight and not training either fighter for this event. I don’t think that will matter too much because both fighters have assembled excellent training teams to support them.

I have read conflicting reports about GSP condition post recovery from ACL surgery. Some reports say he as good as new and others say he not 100% of what he once was. He looks petty good in the video of his training sessions that I have seen, but we really won’t know until he gets back in the Octagon for a real fight. If GSP is 100% of what he was that will prove to a real problem for Condit. GSP will probably be able to take down Condit fairly easily if he has retained his quickness and then Condit’s ground skills will be put to the test. OTOH, if Condit can keep the fight standing he probably stands a significantly better chance of winning the fight because his striking and kicks are very accurate and he does have KO power in his fists.

St. Pierre wins by unanimous decision.

POST EVENT COMMENTS:


Well, I went 2 for 2 tonight. I wish I had put some money down on these fights in Vegas.

Hendricks KO’d Kampmann in 46 seconds! Wow! I was really surprised that the Big Rig was able to land his powerful left hand so quickly because I know Kampmann was aware it would be coming. I watched a recent interview with Kampmann in which he acknowledged that Hendricks was dangerous with his left and that he didn’t want to get caught like Jon Fitch (who was KO’d by Hendricks in 12 seconds). Oh well, easier said than done I guess.

Georges St. Pierre won his fight against Carlos Condit in very convincing fashion with a unanimous decision, but Condit proved to be a very worthy opponent for the UFC Welterweight champ. GSP won the fight 4 rounds to 1, but Condit came close to finishing GSP in the 3rd round when he land a beautiful kick to the side of GSP’s head, which put him down on his back. Condit followed up by swarming GSP and landing some solid strikes. To GSP’s immense credit he was able to keep his composure and work his way back to his feet, surviving the round and Condit’s most serious threat to him in the fight. GSP used his superior quickness to execute take downs of Condit in the 4th and 5th rounds and punish him with relentless ground and pound. Still, Condit fought well off his back and delivered some strikes and elbows that definitely did some damage to GSP.

NFL 2012 at Week 10

Posted on by georgefattell

We are over the half way point now and most of my pre season division picks are looking pretty good, but a couple are in peril, including my hometown San Diego Chargers.

AFC EAST: New England (6-3) First Place. NE has won 3 games in a row, while the rest of the division is falling apart. The Patriots should easily win this division, even though they got off to a less than stellar start, going 3-3.

AFC NORTH: Baltimore (7-2) First Place. The Ravens are holding things together despite the loss of Ray Lewis, the long time leader of the Ravens D. Baltimore has developed a powerful offense that is capable of compensating for a defense that is not as dominant as it once was. Pittsburgh trails the Ravens by only one game, but they just lost star QB Ben Rothlisberger due to a rib injury he suffered in their last game. I don’t think the Steelers can keep up with the Ravens if Big Ben is out more than few games.

AFC SOUTH: Houston (8-1) First Place. The Texans continue to be one the hottest teams in the league. They continue to excel on both sides of the ball and they should win the division. The upstart Colts, currently riding a 4 game win steak behind the spectacular play of Rookie QB Andrew Luck are putting a little pressure on the Texans, but they are 6-3 and I don’t think they will be able to challenge the Texans for the division lead.

AFC WEST: San Diego (4-5) Second Place. Very disappointing to see the Chargers sitting in 2nd place after they got off to such a promising start. They play the first place Denver Broncos (6-3) next and that game is critical to San Diego. It is make or break time for the Bolts. If they go to Denver and beat the red hot Bronos (4 game winning steak) they still have a chance to take the division, but if they lose they are finished. There is lot riding on this game.

NFC EAST: New York (6-4) First Place. The Giants are in first, but they look like they are going in the wrong direct, having dropped their last two games. Fortunately for NY the rest of the teams in the division have had bigger problems and they all under .500. Philly and Washington, both at 3-6, look like they are finished. Dallas is hanging in there at 4-5. I still think the Giants will win the division, but they certainly don’t look like a Super Bowl Champ right now. If they don’t improve coming down the stretch they are headed for an early exit in the playoffs.

NFC NORTH: Green Bay (6-3) Second Place. The Packers have now won 4 games in a row and now trail Chicago (7-2) by only one game. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has looked like a real MVP candidate during the win streak. With 7 games left to play the Packers have the time they need to overtake the Chicago Bears and I expect them to do so.

NFC SOUTH: Atlanta (8-1) First Place. The Falcons finally dropped a game, in a narrow loss to New Orleans last Sunday. However, they Falcons have demonstrated that they are no fluke this year and appear to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. If they secure home field advantage during the playoffs they will very difficult to beat.

NFC WEST: San Francisco (6-2-1) First Place. The 49ers are in a commanding position at this point, but Seattle is still in the running with a record of 6-4. The 49ers defense remains one of the best in the league and should carry them to a division title.

Tablet Wars: The iPad Mini and the Surface enter the fray

Posted on by georgefattell

Computer titans Apple and Microsoft both introduced new tablet computers within the last two weeks and I think both devices are very interesting. I have now had a chance to play with both tablets. At the Fashion Valley Mall in San Diego the Apple Store and Microsoft Store are within a 100 yards of each other, so it was very easy for me to see both devices during a recent trip I made to the mall. I’ve got to say that I was impressed by both tablets and I could see myself owning one of each in the future.

Basic Spec’s:

iPad Mini

Height: 7.87 inches
Width: 5.3 inches
Depth: 0.28 inches
Weight: 0.69 pound

Storage: 16GB, 32GB, 64GB

Display: 1024 x 768 resolution at 163 pixels per inch

Cameras: Front Camera 1.2 MP photo, 720p HD video – Rear Camera 5 MP photo, 1080p HD Video

Battery: 10 hours

Impressions: The Mini was actually a little larger than I expected it be and that was a pleasant surprise. I like the smaller size, but it still provides plenty of screen space and I found the quality of the display quite good. I took a look at some pictures on iPhoto and they were beautiful. Does it match a Retina screen? No, but it is still very good imo. I don’t know why some of the fan boys are so wee wee’d up about the resolution of the display. The build quality of the iPad Mini was excellent. It is incredibly thin, yet it feels very sturdy, thanks to a very solid aluminum enclosure.

Many critics seem think the iPad Mini is overpriced, starting at $329 for the 16 GB model, but I still think it will sell very well because it is significantly better than any of the other 7″ tablets on the market today. I wish it was a little cheaper, but it is not prohibitively expensive in my opinion. The Mini delivers all the functionality of a regular iPad and better portability. You give up a little screen space and of course, as I mentioned earlier, no Retina display, but I think the trade offs for prices that start at $170 less than the regular iPad are acceptable. It will be interesting to see to what degree the iPad Mini cannibalizes the regular iPad market share. I read that some analysts made initial estimates of up to 20% cannibalization and now I’m reading that some analysts think that the iPad Mini will ultimately become the best selling iPad. After seeing the iPad Mini in person I think it will indeed become the best iPad within 2 years.

I’m pretty sure the iPad Mini will be my next iPad.

Microsoft Surface:

Height: 6.77 inches
Width: 10.81 inches
Depth: 0.37 inches
Weight: 1.5 lbs

Storage: 32GB, 64GB

Display: 10.6 inch ClearType HD Display, 1366x768b pixels

Cameras: Front and Rear 720p HD LifeCams, with two microphones and Stereo Speakers

CPU: Quad-core NVIDA Tegra 3, 2GB RAM

Impressions: The overall build quality, including a very high quality display, is what I first took note of when I took a close look at the Surface. The design of the black tablet is very elegant and it feels very solid. The fold out kickstand is very useful. The one hardware feature that found a little disappointing was the physical keyboard. Maybe it just takes a little practice, but I just didn’t think it offered any great advantages over a virtual keyboard. Fortunately, the Surface does have a virtual keyboard that is very good and customizable as well. You can select different types of virtual keyboards, including both one with a conventional layout and one with a split keyboard layout.

The OS on the Surface is a lightweight version of the new Windows 8 called RT. I found it to be an attractive new interface, that looks clean and modern. The new OS does have a learning curve, because it is different than anything that has come before it and it doesn’t seem quite a intuitive as Mac OS X or iOS and it is very different from Windows 7, but it is logically organized and I’m it becomes easier to use with a little practice.

The Surface is not inexpensive, with the bottom of the line RT model starting at $499.00 and the soon to be released Pro model will go north of $800 for some models, but I think the Surface can carve out a significant niche in the tablet market. It may take a few years, but I think the Surface will slowly grow market share. The question is which tablets will lose market share as a result of Surface growth? I think Surface will end up stealing more market share from Android tablets than Apple, although I expect the Surface to remain well behind both in market share for at least the next few years. That said, I do think that the Surface can attract a loyal following and if Microsoft is fully committed to supporting this tablet for the next 5 years (I think they are) then it may capture a large segment of tablet market share.