Predictions for NBA 2012-2013 Season

Posted on by georgefattell

The NBA off season seemed to fly by pretty quickly, but that is OK with me. I’m very much ready NBA hoops again. This post is a few days late. I normally try to put prediction posts before the season begins, but I got sidetracked with a few things this week, including watching coverage of Hurricane Sandy and the election campaign, among other things. However, I think I can honestly say my predictions have not been influenced very much by the first few games we have seen so far.

Coach of Year: This a very tough award to pick because there are usually several strong candidates. I’m going am tempted to go with Erik Spo of the Miami Heat, but I’m not sure he will get the recognition he deserves because the Heat are so loaded with talent. I’m going to pick Frank Vogel, of the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are a young up and coming team and Vogel did a very good job with them last season. If the Pacers exceed their win total from last season and go deep into the playoffs I think Vogel will be recognized and win this award.


Rookie of Year: Anthony Davis, NO Hornets. Looks like this will be race between Forward Anthony Davis and Portland PG Damian Lillard. Both are and should be outstanding this season. Close call, but I will go with Davis because I think his all-around stat’s may be a little bit better in the long run.

Sixth Man: Jason Terry, Boston Celtics. James Harden would have been the obvious choice for this award, but his trade to Houston and new starting role take him out of consideration. I’ll go with Jason Terry, who is a proven scorer and should receive a lot of minutes with Boston this season. I think Terry will be a very important contributor to the Celtics this season. Of course, I won’t be surprised if any number of other players win. There are so many talented 6th men in this league and once Harden was elevated to be being a starter with Houston this award was put up for grabs.

Defensive POY: Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers. I’m going out on a limb here, but I think Hibbert has a shot because Dwight Howard may not be 100% this season, coming off his injury from last season. Look, this award usually goes to a center or power forward who racks up a lot shot blocks, fair or not, that is just the way it is. The last pure guard to win this award was Gary “The Glove” Payton in 95-96. So, it will probably be a big man who can block quite a few shots and ideally one who is on a good team that will make the playoffs and do some damage. Several good big men will likely fall into category this season and I count Hibbert among them.

MVP: Kevin Durant, OKC Thunder. Of course LeBron James is the favorite for this award and justifiably so after leading the Miami Heat to a championship. The only player that seriously challenged James for the MVP award last year was Kevin Durant. I picked Durant to win the MVP award last year and I am doing so again this year because I think Durant is once again the only player that can seriously challenge LeBron for the MVP award. It should be a two man race between them again. However, with the Thunder trading star the OKC Thunder will be more dependent on Durant then the Heat will be on James because.

Eastern Conference Champion: The Miami Heat. This was not a difficult choice. The Heat added a few new weapons, most notably SG Ray Allen from the rival Celts. The Heat’s Big Three (James, Wade & Bosh) are healthy and in their prime. LeBron James will probably have another year that merits MVP consideration. Wade and Bosh will join LeBron on the All-Star team again. Will other teams in the East push the Heat this season? Probably. I expect the Knicks, Celtics, Bulls and Pacers all to be pretty good and you can probably throw a couple of other teams in there too, but none them will have the firepower to defeat the Heat the playoffs.

Western Conference Champion: OKC Thunder. The Thunder may not win as many games during the regular season as they did last season because of the loss of star Sixth Man James Harden. I think it is very possible that one to three teams in the West may win more games in the regular season than the Thunder, but I think Thunder will emerge as the Western Champ’s in the payoffs. Why? Because by the time the playoffs roll around I think the Thunder coaching staff will have made adjustments to compensate for the loss of Harden to a large degree. Moreover, the youth of the Thunder will give them an advantage over their rivals by the time the playoffs. The Lakers and Spurs both look dangerous on paper, but I think they may be a little too reliant on older players who may fade come playoff time. Other up and coming teams, such as the LA Clippers and Memphis will be good, but not good enough to overtake the reigning Western Division Champ’s. Dallas should also be good, but I don’t think they can take the Thunder this year.

NBA Champion:I think the Heat will meet the Thunder again, in what could become the defining rivalry of this era in the NBA. Heat vs. Thunder could become like the Celtics and Lakers during the 1980’s. I reluctantly picked the Miami Heat to the win championship last year. I really wasn’t a huge fan of the Heat going into last season, but I thought that their talent, combined with the lessons they learned from losing to the Dallas Mavericks the year before, would make them very difficult to stop last season and they were. Now this Heat team has learned how to win a championship, and they want more. They are older and wiser, but not too old. The young Thunder team will also come back wiser and more experienced, but I think the loss of James Harden will put the Thunder at too much of a disadvantage to a team with as much firepower as the Heat. I think the Thunder will win championships at some point in the future, just not this season.

Obama vs. Romney: An election that is too close to call?

Posted on by georgefattell

Is this election really too close to call? Not if you listen to many pundits, prognosticators and political analysts in the media these days. They all think it is going to be a blowout. The problem is many think it will be Obama winning by a landslide and many others thinking it will Romney winning by a landslide. I can’t remember a major election where opinion was so divided so close to the election. A lot of people who have called this race are going “All In”, one way or another that declaring that either Obama or Romney will win easily.

Those calling for a decisive Obama victory include Nate Silver, author of The New York Times 538 political blog, former Dem campaign manager Bob Shrum, CNBC’s Jim Cramer .

Those calling for a Romney blowout include former campaign manager Dick Morris, talk show host Rush Limbaugh, political analyst Michael Barrone and two Political Science professors (Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry) from the University of Colorado.

I am particularly interested to see how the professors do. Their election forecasting model, which uses economic data from each state to predict how each state will vote (good econ data favors the incumbent and vice versa), has correctly picked presidential winners, both Republican and Democrat, since 1980.

Obviously, all these people can’t be right.

I think one of the following three scenarios will unfold:

1) Obama wins by a narrow margin. Obama holds all the traditional Blue states and takes just enough of the Swing states to put him over the 276 electoral votes he needs to win.

2) Romney wins by a narrow margin. Romney wins the Red states he needs, plus most of the Swing states and one or two Blue states that were considered safe for the Democrats.

3) Romney wins by a landslide. Romney runs the table on the Swing states and takes a number of other big states that would normally be considered safe for Democrats, such as PA, MN and OR.

I am indeed a little biased, I will admit that I want Romney to win and of the three scenario’s I outlined above I think #2 is most likely, although I will gladly take #3 also. However, will I be shocked if Obama wins? Not at all. If Obama wins by a landslide, with 300 plus electoral votes I will be very surprised because I just think he is going to lose too many independents this time around to make a landslide for him possible. However, Obama is the incumbent and that makes him difficult to defeat, even though his first term has not met the expectations of even many of his supporters. The vast majority of the main stream media have been pro-Obama/ anti-Romney and that gives Obama a significant edge. Without the support of MSM Obama would no chance in my opinion, but he does have it and that give him a big advantage.

POST ELECTION REVIEW

Barack Obama 303 Electoral Votes* 60,788,910 Popular Votes

Mitt Romney 206 Electoral Votes 57,894,038 Popular Votes

*Not including Florida (EV’s for Florida still being determined).

Well, I was obviously wrong about the outcome of the presidential race, although in my defense I would point out that I did think that there was a distinct possibly that Obama could win (see my post above).
I did not think Obama would win by a landslide, but he did win over 300 electoral votes, which can reasonably be called a landslide. However, Romney fared much better in the popular vote count, losing by only 3 million votes. That relatively small difference is frustrating. This race was winnable for Romney in my opinion. Romney lost a few states by very small margins, such as Ohio (lost by 1.9%) or Virgina (lost by 3.0%). A few other states were lost by 6 percent or less.

I haven’t come to totally firm conclusions about Obama’s victory because I’m still looking at voting data and reading post election postmortems from a variety of different sources. However, my initial reaction to the race’s outcome would include the following:

In retrospect, I think Romney should have more aggressively attacked Obama’s positions on major issues and his qualifications. Romney and his team seemed to rely too much attacking on the poor performance of the economy during Obama’s 1st term.

I also think Romney’s campaign was too slow to respond to some Obama campaign’s attacks on Romney and when they did the defense was often less then vigorous (Such as the attacks on Romney’s former company Bain Capital).

Unfortunately, I think Obama’s campaign team was more aggressive and effective. I can’t say I admire them, but they obviously figured out how exploit Romney’s weak points and craft a strategy that delivered the states they needed to win.

Which Bond is Best?

Posted on by georgefattell

I’m really looking forward to Skyfall, the latest James Bond film. The early reviews have been excellent, with some critics saying that it one of best Bond films, if not the best, of all all time. I have also read that some people think it is so good that it may merit one or more Oscar nominations. I must admit it seems to be a very promising film. It was directed by the talented Sam Mendes and brings back Daniel Craig to a role he has really taken ownership of. I was born in the 1960’s and I’ve been a huge Bond fan my entire life, going back to the Sean Connery films of the 1960’s. With all the positive buzz and renewed interest in the franchise I have once again pondered the question of “Which Bond is Best? It is actually a twofold question for me, 1) Which Bond film is the best one of all? and 2) Which actor has done the best job of playing James Bond?

As for the first question I have to go old school and vote for Goldfinger as the best yet, although I thought a couple of others were close, including Casino Royale, the film that introduced Daniel Craig as James Bond. But I still consider Goldfinger the gold standard for Bond films, it had everything you want in an outstanding Bond film:

1) A distinguished performance by the actor playing Bond? Check. Sean Connery delivered a signature performance here.

2) One or more memorable villains? Check. Goldfinger (Gert Frobe) and his henchman, Oddjob (Harold Sakata), were very formidable foes indeed.

3) Bond Girls? This film had a few stunners, with Honor Blackman being the most notable.

4) Gadgets. This film had some good ones, including what may be the most iconic Bond vehicle of all time, Q’s highly modified Aston Martin DB5
5) Theme Song? Shirely Bassey’s Goldfinger has stood the test of time very well and remains the best Bond song imo.

Since I hold Goldfinger in such high regard it will probably come as no surprise that I think Sean Connery’s version is still the best. I think several other actors have played the character really well, but right now I rank the actors who have played 007 in the following order:

1) Sean Connery

2) Daniel Craig

3) Roger Moore

4) Pierce Brosnan

5) Timothy Dalton

6) George Lazenby

I may have to change my rankings after I see Skyfall. We’ll see. No matter how good Slyfall I don’t think I will put Craig ahead a Connery because this is only Craig’s third installment, but he has signed up for two more Bond films, so if he keeps delivering strong performances in the role I may have to rank him ahead of Connery at some point, or at least tie with him, but I don’t think Craig is quite there yet, although I love his reinvention of the character. Best Bond film is another matter. Skyfall may surpass Goldfinger. I’ll tell you what I think in a couple of weeks.

Sunset at Pacific Beach

Posted on by georgefattell

I just happened to be out at Pacific Beach late this afternoon (10-18-12) and I caught a great sunset, which I took several pictures of. The picture below may be the best of the group. I wasn’t expecting to see a beautiful sunset because the weather really wasn’t all that great. Most of the day it was quite cloudy and the sun never broke through the thick blanket of cloud cover on a day that seemed more like the kind of day you would experience in “Gray May” than you would in October here in San Diego. However, the clouds started parting a bit late in the day and the clouds that remained helped create a beautiful frame as sunset approached.

Visit to the 2012 MCAS Miramar Air Show

Posted on by georgefattell

I took a trip out to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar yesterday (10-14-12) to see the annual Air Show, which featured the legendary U.S. Navy Blue Angels and many other high performance military aircraft, as well as other military equipment of all kinds. The Air Show is a three day event, this year it ran from the 12th to the 14th. I have attended this event at least 5 or 6 times previously (Frankly, I’ve lost count) and I have always enjoyed it. This year was no exception.

There were two B-52’s at the show this this year. The Air Force has done a great job of keeping these 50 year old aircraft in excellent condition. It is projected that some of these bombers will be able to stay in service until the 2040’s!

A massive C-17 transport was also on hand..

The show featured more than just planes….

The Blue Angels are the big stars and they end show with a spectacular display of precision flying..

The Air Force sent a couple of F-22 Raptors to the show. Only one Raptor flew a demonstration flight, the other is there to serve as a back-up if mechanical problems develop with the primary aircraft. The Raptor is the best, most technologically advanced fighter aircraft flying today and it is a real crowd pleaser when it takes to the sky. The thrust vectoring capability of the Raptor makes it incredibly maneuverable.

BTW, this show is free to the public. You do have to pay for a seat in the grandstands ($11.00 for adults), but you can watch from anyplace out on the tarmac for free. You can’t beat that deal. Many people bring portable chairs and some even bring umbrellas, which is not a bad idea because the sun can be intense out on the airfield. I would advise anyone going to wear sunglasses and a hat.


Several people have posted some very good videos of the Blue Angels and the Raptor performing at this show on You Tube. Just use the search term MCAS MIRAMAR AIR SHOW 2012 and you will find them. You need a fairly good video camera in order to capture the high speed movement of these aircraft. So, I would encourage you to take a look at a few of those videos if you want to see just fast and powerful these aircraft here.

UFC 153: Can Stephen Bonnar really beat Anderson Silva?

Posted on by georgefattell

UFC 153 takes place in Rio de Janeiro tonight. The overall card is pretty good, it will include fights featuring HW Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Dave Herman, Welterweight Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva, LHW Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado and Welterweight Demian Maia vs. Rick Story. However, I think it is the main event which is the most intriguing fight of the event.

The main event for UFC 153 tonight features UFC Middleweight Champ Anderson Silva (32-4) fighting light heavyweight Stephen Bonnar (15-7) at LHW limit of 205 pounds. This fight was arranged only a month ago because previously scheduled main event, which was to feature Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar, had to be canceled due to an injury to Aldo. Being a good company man, Anderson Silva agreed to step in and fight an opponent at Light Heavy in a non-championship fight. The UFC then offered the fight to Stephen Bonnar and he
accepted the rare opportunity to fight a UFC legend.

Silva hasn’t lost a fight since 2006 (outside the UFC). Silva’s record in the UFC 15-0 and he is widely acknowledged as the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC. 35 yearr old Stephen Bonnar has had a solid career in UFC, but has never held a UFC title. He was the Runner-up (to Forrest Griffen) in the The Ultimate Fighter 1 way back in 2005. He is currently riding a 3 fight win streak.

The Odds: Silva is -1200 and Bonnar is +700 (although I have seen him as high as +800)

The means that if you $100 on Bonnar and he actually wins you would win $700. If you bet $1200 on Silva to win and he does you only win $100. So, the odds makers clearly see this as a fight that Bonnar has little chance of winning.

I don’t think I would want to put money on either side of this bet, but if I had to bet a little money on the fight I would bet on Bonnar. Silva just might do something careless or make a mistake that gives Bonnar an opportunity to put him away. Bonnar is no where near the athlete that Silva is, but he is a pretty well rounded veteran MMA fighter and he does know how to put opponents away. Bonnar’s 15 victories include 3 KO’s and 7 submissions. Bonnar is well versed in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo. Of course, Spider Silva is also very well versed in BJJ, Judo and Taekwondo. Silva’s one weakness is wrestling. Both Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen have taken Silva down in previous fights and inflicted some damage on him. Still, taking Silva Down is no easy task. His Take Down defense is very good. Henderson and Sonnen were both Olympic caliber wrestlers and even they could not finish off Silva once they did manage to get him down. Bonnar does not possess the wrestling ability of Dan Henderson or Chael Sonnen.

If the fight remains standing I don’t think Bonnar will be able to defend himself against Silva’s speed and precision striking. If Bonnar can bring the fight to ground he might have a little better chance, but again, bringing the fight there will be difficult for Bonnar to do and even if he does Silva has demonstrated that he can be very dangerous on his back, where he is always looking for the submission. Both Sonnen (1st fight, triangle choke) and Henderson (rear naked choke) lost to Silva on the ground.

Bonnar is a tough customer and he will fight hard, but I am going to predict that Silva wins by KO in the 2nd round.

POST FIGHT REVIEW:


Gee, I guess I underestimated Anderson Silva or over estimated Stephen Bonnar, or both. Spider Silva made short work of Bonnar and KO’d him in the first round. Bonnar was aggressive, but he had no answer for Silva’s speed. It appeared to me that Silva quickly estimated Bonnar’s speed and strength in the first two minutes of the fight and concluded that Bonnar could not throw anything that would really hurt him. Silva toyed with Bonnar by remaining standing against the cage and daring Bonnar to trade strikes. Silva easily dodged Bonnar’s strikes and when he found an opening he landed a powerful knee to Bonnar’s solar plexus and that put him down. Silva then delivered a few punches to the crumpled Bonnar’s head and the ref had to jump in. It was another good example of why Silva is so dangerous, he can end a fight with his fists or his legs. Not too many other fighters in the UFC can do that.

NFL 2012 after 5 weeks

Posted on by georgefattell

Time to check in and see how my pre-season picks for each division are doing:

AFC EAST: New England (3-2) First Place. NE looks good. Could easily be 4-1 and the rest of the division looks less than threatening.

AFC NORTH: Baltimore (4-1) First Place. The Ravens have been impressive, but Cincy and Pittsburgh won’t go down without a fight. I still think I’ll be right with this pick.

AFC SOUTH: Houston (5-0) First Place. The Texans have started with guns blazing. They should win this division easily.

AFC WEST: San Diego (3-2) First Place. Nice to see the Chargers break the trend of recent years and actually get off to a solid start. With KC and Oakland playing poorly it looks like the Bronco’s are the only team that could really challenge the Bolts. Denver is definitely a better team with Peyton Manning, but Manning is still not 100% of what he once was. The Bronco’s are still a work in progress.

NFC EAST: New York (3-2) Tied for First Place with Philly. Giants off to a good start. I predicted that this division would be a dogfight and I see no reason to change that assessment. Washington’s heralded rookie QB RG3 has turned out to be as good as advertised, so all 4 teams in the division look like they could be good.

NFC NORTH: Green Bay (2-3) Third Place. What happened here?!? Surprisingly, Minnesota and Chicago stand atop the division, both with 4-1 records. Can that last? I don’t think it will, but I’m not sure how this division will pan out. I think GB is a better team than their record reflects, but they really can’t lose much more ground and expect to catch up at the end of the season.

NFC SOUTH: Atlanta (5-0) First Place. I thought Atlanta would be good, but they have exceeded my expectations and those of many other fans, probably even a few in Atlanta. The Falcons are playing really well on both sides of the ball and appear to be a team that is very capable of going to the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan is playing as well as any QB in the league. The rest of this division can forget about winning the division or being a wild card.

NFC WEST: San Francisco (4-1) Tied for First Place with Arizona. Although the 49ers dropped a game to the much improved Vikings in Minn. I still think they are the best team in the NFC. This entire division has played well to date.

Farmers Field in LA gets green lighted

Posted on by georgefattell

I’m sure sports fans throughout the Los Angeles area are very pleased that plans to build a new football stadium in downtown Los Angeles have finally been approved by state and city officials. Construction of the new stadium, which will be called Farmers Field, can begin when an NFL team commits to moving into the new stadium. I don’t think finding a team to play there will be too much of a challenge because the stadium will be a state of facility in a spectacular setting, located right next to the famous Staples Centre, home of the LA Lakers and LA Kings. Two NFL teams may move to Farmers Field in the end and share the stadium in the manner that the NY Giants and NY Jets share MetLife Stadium in the NJ Meadowlands.

I think Los Angeles, as the nations second largest city, definitely deserves at least one NFL franchise. Of course, the big question is which NFL team(s) will move to Farmers Field. The teams that seem to be discussed most frequently are the Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and last, but not least, the San Diego Chargers.

I just hope the Chargers will not be moving to LA. I’ve become a huge fan of Chargers since I moved to S.D. back in 2003 and I would hate to see the team move because I think it has such a strong San Diego identity. Although, it is true that the Chargers were originally a Los Angeles team. They played in LA, during their first season, way back in 1961 and moved south to San Diego the following season.

I’m glad Breaking Bad is coming to an end.

Posted on by georgefattell

I recently watched the first 8 episodes of the 5th and final season of the hit TV show Breaking Bad. I waited until the first 8 episodes were aired and available on iTunes and then downloaded all 8 episodes at once. I watched all 8 episodes in two days. I prefer to watch the show that way, rather than wait week to week than the episodes are originally airing.

I have become a huge fan of the show and I throughly enjoyed the plot twists and turns of season 5 to date. The show still has the ability to throw the viewer for a loop with unexpected plot developments and surprise actions from the main characters. As fans of the show know, the remaining 8 episodes will not be aired until the summer of 2013, which is such a long span of time that it will almost seem like season 6, but of course it remains season 5. So, in 2013 the story of America’s most talented meth cook/chemistry teacher, Albuquerque’s Walter White (played brilliantly by Bryan Cranston) will come to an end and I’m glad it will because I think the series will go out on top, at least in creative terms. I have no idea how series creator/writer/director Vince Gilligan and his team of writers will bring this great series to an end, but expect it to be riveting, just as the first half of season 5 was. Will Walter and/or other members of his family survive the final 8 episodes? They may not, we don’t know. I don’t think we can put anything past the writers of this brilliant show.

There is no doubt that Gilligan and company could dream up a storyline that could keep this series going for a few more seasons, but would the quality of the series decline? I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that it would. Five years is a nice long run and there few good TV shows that remain at their highest level after season 5. I think 24 and CSI are two good fairly recent examples of that. Neither show was bad post season 5, but they had peaked and they went downhill after that imo. I prefer to see great TV shows go out on top and I think that is just what Breaking Bad will do. Can’t wait to see it happen.

Scenes from the 2012 Coronado Speed Festival

Posted on by georgefattell

This past Saturday (09-22-12) I paid a visit to the Coronado Speed Festival, which is an annual event held at Naval Air Station North Island. The Navy allows a large portion of the airfield at North Island to be converted into an auto race track and an area where scores of autos, new, old and in between to be put on display for race enthusiasts and car fans. The views from Coronado to Downtown San Diego and Point Loma provided a stunning backdrop for the event.

Here are a few of the pictures I took at the event:

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Here are a few of the cars that were on display: