Good article here by Market Technician Carl Swenlin
Wait! Was That a Bear Market?
Source: Wait! Was That a Bear Market?
Author: georgefattell
Podcast Listening: The Joe Rogan Experience
I haven’t posted a Podcast review post in quite awhile, but I certainly haven’t stopped listening to podcasts. If anything, I spend more time listening to podcast than ever before. I have a pretty busy work schedule, between my primary job and various projects that I work on the side. So, podcasts are great for me because I can listen to them whenever I have time.
One podcast that I have listened to for a few years now and become a big fan is The Joe Rogan Experience, hosted by Joe Rogan, best known for being UFC’s lead color commentator, a stand-up comedian, and television show host.
I like the Joe Rogan Experience because Joe does bring on lost interesting guests from a wide variety of backgrounds, although I would admit many of shows feature fellow stand-up comedians and personalities from the world of mixed martial arts. However, aside from those two groups he invites a fairly eclectic mix of guests on to discuss topics ranging from politics, to hunting, to bio-technology, to the financial markets and other topics.
I would say that Rogan is left of center overall in terms of political views. I don’t agree him philosophically on many issues, but I like the fact that he willing to bring on guests that do not share his views and have a real debate over issues. Many talk show hosts these days , whether on radio or TV, do not do that. So, in that respect I find TJRE interesting listening.
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One thing that I would have to caution new listeners on is language on TJRE. Joe and some of guests can be quite profane. That doesn’t me, I actually find the the colorful language on the show pretty funny sometimes but I could see how some people might be offended by it, especially if they were not expecting it.
So, I would have to give this podcast an R rating for language and content. This pod doesn’t always include profanity, that usually depends on the guest(s) and the subjects being discussed, but it frequently does.
To be continued….
Is the coolest Honda vehicle now a truck?
I’m a huge fan of the Honda Motor Company and I have been going all the way back to the 1980’s when my family purchased our first Honda, which was an Accord that was about the size of a today’s Fit. It might have been smaller than the Fit, but it was a great little car.
Over the years since I have admired many different Honda models, but I always thought their smaller models, including many versions of Civic over the years, the CR-Z and the S-2000 were the coolest cars they made. Now I’m not so sure with introduction of the totally redesigned 2017 Ridgeline, Honda’s only truck.
I have not seen a new Ridgeline in person yet, but I am highly impressed by the pictures and video that I have seen of the new truck. I think the Honda design team really hit it out of the park with the 2017 Ridgeline. The new design is a lot sportier and more contemporary looking than the old Ridgeline, but it also looks more like a conventional pick-up truck in a totally good way. I think this truck is going to sell really well. It won’t dethrone the Ford F-150 or out sell some of the other top selling truck, but it should carve out a significant place for itself in the truck space.
UFC 200: Anderson Silva steps in as the Underdog
It was truly stunning news a couple of days ago when it was announced that Jon “Bones” Jones was pulled from his HIGHLY anticipated showdown with Daniel Cormier for the UFC LHW title because he came up hot on pre-fight drug test. The UFC 200 main event was put into peril and UFC President Dana White had to scramble to find respectable substitute for Jones. A number of prominent fighters volunteered, including Gegard Mousasi, who is the #9 ranked LHW in the world. Mousasi was already on the undercard, scheduled to fight in an another LHW bout and I was hoping Dana White would allow him to take on the Champ. Many others felt the same way and there were many calls to Dana White on social media, especially Twitter, to make that fight happen, but White went another direction and gave the nod to the legendary former UFC MW champ Anderson Silva. I think that choice caught many people by surprise, myself included, because Anderson normally fights at middle weight, although he walks around at 200 pounds or more when he isn’t cutting weight for a MW fight. More surprising though, at least to me, is that Anderson wanted this fight on such short notice, with no training camp at all.
So, now we have a very interesting fight indeed.
Dan Cormier (+410)
vs
Anderson “Spider” Silva (-375)
You very rarely see Spider Silva as a significant underdog, even now, in the twilight of his singularly great career. From a betting perspective I think Anderson is a great bet -375. Some Vegas books have Silva at -400 or -410. I totally understand that because Cormier is still arguably in his prime and is supremely talented. He has pretty much destroyed everyone in his path, but Jon Jones. But if there is one fighter out there, besides Jones, who has the skill set to deal with Cormier’s nearly superhuman strength and Olympic level wrestling ability it may indeed be the Spider. However, there a number of big flashing question marks concerning Silva. Just what kind of shape is Anderson really in? He weighed in a fairly trim 198 pounds, which is a good weight for his 6’2″ frame, but will he have the stamina to go more than a round or two with the powerful Cormier? Can Anderson, without a training camp, just go in there and wing it against a fighter at Cormier’s level. What will the Spider’s strategy be?
Part of me is still disappointed that Mousasi will not be Cormier’s opponent because I think he would have given Daniel a tough fight, but I think he also would have been a significant underdog. That said, after thinking it over, I think Silva vs Cormier is the most intriguing fight that UFC could have arranged. Although Silva is a big underdog he still has certain moves that very few UFC fighters have and even in his 40’s his quickness give him an advantage over most opponents. Cormier better not underestimate him or he may find himself receiving a flying knee to his face or a variety of other head kicks. Anderson is also very skilled on the ground so even if Cormier scores a takedown or several takedowns for that matter he may find himself in trouble if he gets caught in Anderson’s guard. Silva has quickly ended a few fights on the ground and in dramatic fashion. His submission (triangle armbar) victory over Chael Sonnen, in the closing minutes of the 5th round of a title fight he was losing, is an excellent example of just how dangerous Silva can be while on his back.
In the end, I do think Cormier will probably win this fight, but if Anderson Silva is in good shape he may shock the world here. If I had a chance to fly to Vegas tomorrow night and make a bet a couple of hundred bucks on this fight Silva would be my choice simply because I think he offers the best value. It would also be very cool to see him add another win to his spectacular career.
Gold Heads Higher: A Look at the Monthly Chart
Gold has certainly been one the more interesting commodities to watch in recent months. It has staged an impressive rally this year and to totally appreciate the significance of the move it has move you have look at the monthly chart, which illustrates how this year’s move up has reversed the downward trend of the last 5 years. We had had an uninterrupted string of Lower Highs and Lower Lows from 2012 to 2016, but now we are clearly in New High territory, and the upward trend received a strong boost from the historic Brexit vote. It will be very interesting to see just how far this leg up will extend.
Backgammon and Risk Management
I will always be grateful to my late father for teaching me how to play backgammon at a very age. The game has provided me a lifetime of enjoyment. In recent years I’ve developed a new appreciation for the game because I have downloaded several backgammon app’s for my iPhone and I play on almost on a daily basis.
I’ve read a variety of articles about Backgammon recently and came across this description of the game by former champion player Tim Holland:
“Backgammon combines the features of every popular game we’ve known for decades. It blends the pure luck of craps and roulette, a lot of tactical skill, and a large element of personal judgment. The social aspect of it is beautiful — you don’t need to go to a club or set up a foursome. You can compete en famille, alone against your wife, or with an almost unlimited number of children or friends.
“Then, it’s so clean and candid; cheating is just about impossible; no one is hiding any cards; there’s no bluff, as in poker. It’s also very democratic and good for the ego because, with occasional luck, beginners can beat the most advanced players. And, of course, it’s the most pacific game I know of; it’s totally devoid of any element of human aggression. You’re never angry at your opponent, as in rummy, or at your partner, as in bridge. Whatever anger you feel is directed at the dice, at some abstraction of Lady Luck.”
Tim Holland, The New Yorker, 1974
I agree with Holland about the social aspect of the game and that aspect is obviously not present when you play against a computer, but I still find playing against my iPhone quite a bit of fun.
I would recommend the game to anyone, but particularly those who have jobs that require some degree of risk management, especially stock and commodity traders. There are a variety of games that could help traders hone their skills risk skills and become more adept at developing strategy. Chess comes mind. As a trader you always want to be thinking a few moves ahead. Backgammon is the same way, except it adds more of an element of chance because moves are dictated by rolls of the dice. In order to become good at the game you really have to learn how to master the odds and play the percentages. There may be some scenarios where you make all the right moves, yet you still lose simply because your opponent was beneficiary of rolls that gave him a great advantage, but if you are disciplined and play the odds correctly you are going to win more often than not. It is the same way trading and investing.
To be continued…..
Van Vleck House and Gardens
I visited the Van Vleck House and Gardens in Montclair, New Jersey about 6 weeks ago. The 5.8 acre estate is open 365 days a year and entrance is free. It is a very tranquil and beautiful place. I have visited Gardens many times and always enjoy walking through the exquisite gardens.
Looking back on the NBA Finals and the season ahead
Well, I must say that I thoroughly enjoyed the NBA Play-offs and Finals this season, even though I was not correct on two major predictions I made. I will explain shortly. I also found the the post Finals free-agency period very exciting. Gosh, it is a real good time to be a NBA player. The league is making a ton of money these days and the players are entitled to 51% of the revenue as a result of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. That means just average players are being rewarded with very lucrative contracts. Makes me really wish I was an NBA agent.
OK, so, going back to the Play-offs and the Finals, I picked the the OKC Thunder to defeat the Golden State Warriors in 6 games and then I picked the Warriors to defeat the Cavs in 6 games. Both teams I picked were up 3-1 and ended up losing in 7….ugh. That is ironic.
I don’t think there was much separating the top 4 teams in the NBA this season, and those teams were the Cavs, Golden State, OKC, and San Antonio. I knew the Thunder were for real when they took out the venerable SA Spurs. Honestly, I still think they should have finished off the GS Warriors on game 6 at home, but they let that game slip away by not playing good D down the stretch. I still believe that Thunder good have gone on to defeat the Cavs if they had advanced to the Finals.
That said, I was very happy to see the Cavs win the championship. It was good to see the City of Cleveland be rewarded with a championship after so many years. Lebron James certainly played his heart out. His block of Andre Ig at the end of game y became an instantly iconic play in the history of NBA play-off basketball. LBJ certainly earned his latest ring, but I was more pleased to see his teammates become Champions after all the hard work they have but in the last couple of years.
Of course, the BIG story of the post Finals was Kevin Durant deciding to leave the OKC Thunder and join Golden State. I’m sure that move will make the Warriors the odds on favorite to win the championship next season, but I still think they are they can be defeated. I’m not ready to concede that they will be a dynasty. Sure, on paper they are fantastic, but they still have to prove it. There is only one basketball and remains to be seen how well Curry, Thompson and Durant can share it.
On a more parochial note, I was pleased with moves that both NY Knick and Brooklyn Nets made. The Knicks brought former MVP Derrick Rose and his Chicago teammate Noah, as well as SG Courtney Lee. The Nets brought Jeremy Lin back to NY by signing him to a 3 yr deal and he will will reunite with new head coach Kenny Atkinson, who was an assistant coach with the Knicks when Lin first burst on to the NBA scene with Knicks. Lin-sanity returns!! Both teams should show improvement and the intra-city rivalry could grow into something quite intense. Should be a lot of fun.
My Predictions for UFC 200: Las Vegas
So, we have finally made it to UFC 200!! I look forward to this UFC event with great anticipation. I have been a serious fan of MMA for about 10 years now. I was always bullish on the UFC and I thought the promotion enjoy significant growth, but I must admit it has exceeded my expectations and probably the expectations of most other people in the MMA world. Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta bought the UFC for 2 million dollars in 2001. The Fertitta’s and their partner UFC President Dana White are now rumored to be entertaining offers for the promotion that exceed4 Billion dollars!?!
I don’t think I have ever posted predictions for an entire UFC card, including the preliminary fights, but I going to give this one a shot. The entire card is stacked!! I must say I envy those that have tickets for this event in Vegas.
Main Card
Light Heavyweight: Daniel Cormier (+235) vs. Jon Jones (-305)
I have to go with Bones Jones. Both fighters are absolutely great, but Jones is simply the best fighter in UFC history imo. His size and reach advantage combined with outstanding wresting skills and extraordinary take defense give him the edge vs Cormier.
Heavyweight: Brock Lesnar (+130) vs. Mark Hunt (-160)
This late addition to the card is certainly welcome. It should a really interesting fight. It may not last very long, but it should not lack for action.
I think Brock is going to pull off the upset and win in return to the Octagon. Lesnar by ground and pound. This fight could also go Hunt by KO very easily, but I think Brock stands decent chance of winning this fight. Lesnar himself has admitted that if the fight stays standing he will probably lose. The 42 yr old Hunt is a very experienced former kick boxer and powerful hitter that is very capable of KO’ing Lesnar or any other HW if he is able to land a clean shot. OTOH, Lesnar has also said if he can bring this fight to the ground it will be over for Hunt and I agree.
Women’s Bantamweight: Miesha Tate (-265) vs. Amanda Nunes (+205)
I have to pick Champion Miesha Tate here. I don’t know too much about Nunes, but I have followed Miesha Tate for a long time and I know she is a very solid, well rounded fighter.
Featherweight: Jose Aldo (-110) vs. Frankie Edgar (-120)
I think the near even odds do accurately reflect just how tough call this fight is. Two absolutely top tier fighters. I think Frankie is going avenge his prior loss to Aldo.
Jersey Strong wins by decision.
Heavyweight: Cain Velasquez (-305) vs. Travis Browne (+235)
I have to pick former HW Champ Cain Velasquez for this fight. Browne is a very capable HW and his size and reach may present some problems for Velasquez. However, if Cain is healthy I just don’t see Browne stopping him.
Fox Sports 1 Preliminary Card
Women’s Bantamweight: Cat Zingano (-170) vs. Julianna Pena (+140)
Another toss up. I’ll go Zingano simply because she
Welterweight: Johny Hendricks (-175) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+145)
Hendricks
Bantamweight: T.J. Dillashaw (-400) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+300)
T.J. Dillashaw
Lightweight: Sage Northcutt (-335) vs. Enrique Martin (+255)
Northcutt is a significant favorite. I don’t know anything about his opponent, but Northcutt is a very promising fighter who has potential to become a huge star for the UFC because of his youth, spectacular athletic ability and good looks. Sage suffered his first defeat in his last fight and I don’t think he wants another L at this stage of his career.
UFC Fight Pass Preliminary Card
Lightweight: Diego Sanchez (-115) vs. Joe Lauzon (-115)
I have no idea how this fight will go, other than to say it probably won’t end in a decision. Oh, and there will probably be a lot of blood spilled in this too. I think that is a safe bet.
Ok, I have to make a choice here and I will go with Sanchez, but I won’t be surprised at all if Lauzon pulls this fight out.
Middleweight: Gegard Mousasi (-667) vs. Thiago Santos (+445)
Gegard Mousasi comes in as the big favorite and that is justified. He’s won 3 out of last 4 fights and he is still a top ten MW.
Lightweight: Jim Miller (-230) vs. Takanori Gomi (+180)
Miller. Going with the Jersey guy. That’s all I need to base my choice on. Seriously, both these guys are tough UFC veterans, but I think Miller
The Stunning Oculus at the World Trade Center
I made a few trips in New York City after a fairly long absence. It always enjoy seeing the progress that has been on various major construction projects that are under way all over the city. There are several fascinating developments in projects in Manhattan, including several Super-Tall skyscrapers and elaborate complexes, such as the Hudson Yards project. However, no project is more important to NYC than the new World Trade Center. The rebuilding of the WTC has been a very long and painstaking process since the attack on 9/11/01, but it has been truly gratifying to see the new WTC slowly come together piece by piece in the last few years. A major milestone was reached with the opening of the WTC Transportation Hub on March 3rd of this year. I have been very eager to see the new building in person since it opened, but I wanted to wait until the weather was a little nicer before making the trip to lower Manhattan. The centerpiece of the Hub, is a soaring, white building, called the Oculus, that in many ways seems like a modern cathedral.
The Oculus is positioned to the east of the North Pool of the WTC, which occupies the spot where the North Tower of the WTC once stood. Behind the Pool you can see the Oculus. The neofuturistic Oculus was designed by the famed Spanish architect Santiago Calatrava. The building opened to mixed reviews from architectural critics, but I love it after seeing it in person. It is a truly inspiring building that I think will stand the test of time well.
gmf journal 