Category: UFC

I am really looking forward to UFC 194. What a totally stacked card!! Thanks Dana White!

The Main Event alone makes this card very interesting, but the top 4 fights all feature excellent fighters. I think all of these fight have the potential to be great. There are no heavy favorites in the top 4 fights. The odds are very close and, frankly, making picks for these fights is very difficult because the fighters are so evenly matched, at least on paper. That may not turn out to be the case once the fights these guys really start trading punches and kicks. I can’t say that I would want to bet a lot of money on any of these fights because I could see every one them going either way. I honestly won’t be shocked if I go 0-4, but here are my predictions:

Featherweight Championship
Champion Jose Aldo (25-1) vs Interim Champion Conor McGregor (18-2)

Odds are basically even for this fight. This might be the toughest pick of all, but I’m going to pick McGregor despite the fact that I concerns about his reckless style. McGregor’s aggressive style is a two edged sword because it leaves him open at times and against a fighter as skilled as Aldo that may prove his undoing because Aldo is one the those fighters who can instantly end a fight with either his fist or feet. However, I think stylistically this is fight works in McGregor’s favor because Aldo is not a great wrestler and that is the type of fighter that I think would have the best chance of beating McGregor, although that fighter would have to have excellent striking as well (someone like Frankie Edgar). Not sure how it will happen, but going with Conor by KO. I think NcGregor’s height and reach advantage will be very helpful to him in this fight.

McGregor wins by TKO 3rd

Middleweight Championship
Champion Chris Weidman(13-0) vs Luke Rockhold (14-2)

Man, strike what I wrote above about Aldo vs McGregor being the toughest fight to pick on this card. This fight is just as difficult. I am a huge fan of both fighters. Both fighters are incredibly well rounded and extremely well trained. Very hard for me to pick against Rockhold, a former Strikeforce champion who has looked devastating in his last few fights. Rockhold thinks Weidman is slow and he will be able to exploit that. I’m not so sure. Weidman is not flashy, but the former NCAA Wrestling Champ is very discipled and has a wide array of weapons. I think Weidman will bring this fight to the ground and there is his wrestling will give him an advantage. Woodman wins by ground and pound.

Weidman wins by TKO, 4th Rd

Middleweight
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (22-3-1NC) vs Yoel Romero (10-1)
Romero is a former Olympic Silver medalist (Cuba – Freestyle Wrestling) who has soundly defeated everyone he has faced in the UFC, where he is 6-0. The guy is a real beast in the Octagon. But Jacare is a truly elite MMA fighter, a former Middleweight Champion in Strikeforce and a very highly decorated multiple time World Jiu Jitsu champion. There are very few UFC middleweights that can defeat Romero right now, but I think Jacare posses the skill and athletic ability to do it.

Souza wins by TKO, 3rd Rd

Welterweight
Demain Maia (21-6) vs Gunnar Nelson (16-1-1)
I admire both of these fighters. Two very intelligent fighters with superb ground games, although both are very well rounded and class acts, too. I’m going to give the edge to Nelson because Maia is 38 yrs old and Nelson is 27 yrs old. Maia has been fighting very well the last year and is on a 3 fight win streak, but Nelson is a young gun on the rise and I think youth will prevail in this fight.

Nelson wins by UD

POST EVENT THOUGHTS:

Well, went 1-3 on my picks, not 0-4. But I did get the Main Event right in predicting that Conor McGregor would win by KO and I’m happy about that. Although, I must admit that KO came a lot faster than anyone would have predicted, including McGregor himself!!

I haven’t posted a UFC prediction on this blog in quite a while. That doesn’t reflect a lack of interest in the sport on my part. I still enjoy MMA quite a bit, but for variety I haven’t had as much time to follow the sport the last couple of years. I became a big fan of MMA, and the UFC in particular, about 10 years ago. I was bullish on the growth of sport 10 years ago and I can’t say that I’m very surprised by the success the UFC has enjoyed in recent years, but I am surprised that Ronda Rousey has argueably become the biggest star in all of MMA. I first took note of Ronda several years ago, when she was fighting for StrikeForce, in the days before the UFC even had a Women’s division. I thought her combination of skill, good looks and a colorful personality would enable her to become a star, but I’m sure she has far exceeded the expectations of most, if not all, in the UFC, including Dana White.

Women’s Bantamweight Championship

Champion Ronda Rousey (-1435) 12-0
vs
Challenger Holly Holm (+1135) 9-0

Ronda Rousey is a huge favorite in this fight and the conventional wisdom is that Rousey will again and do so quickly, using her Olympic level Judo skills to bring the fight to the ground, where she will have a great advantage against Holm, who’s forte is boxing. I think there is a great probability that the fight will go exactly that way, but Holm is former boxing champ and is the most skilled boxer that Rousey has ever faced, and she will have a slight height and reach advantage over Rousey. So, if Holm can some how keep the fight standing she may have chance to deliver punches that will KO Rousey before the champ can take her down and take advantage of her superior ground skills.

Does Holm has the take down defense needed to keep this fight standing? We will no doubt find out early in this fight. One of things that makes this fight interesting is the fact that Holm is trained by the Jackson/Winkeljohn Team in Albuquerque and they are among the best, if not the best, trainers in MMA. Has the legendary Greg Jackson devised plan that can defeat the great Ronda Rousey and does Holm have the athletic ability to execute the plan?

Both fighters are smart and play to their strengths. Rousey has no interest in prolonging fights. She usually goes right for the kill and brings it to an end as soon as possible, usually by submitting her opponent by armbar, her signature move. Rousey won her last fight by KO in the first round, delivering a flurry of quick blows that overwhelmed her opponent and dropped her to the canvas in first round. In that fight Rousey wanted to demonstrate that she could win in a fashion other then armbar and she did in impressive fashion. However, I don’t think Rousey will try that approach versus Holm. Again, she doesn’t want to turn this into a boxing match.

Holm also tries to fight in an efficient manner. Earlier this year, after one her UFC fights, I read that Holm said that she was glad that she did not win “Fight of the Night” and the prize money that goes with that award because that would mean she took too much damage. I thought that was an interesting remark and revealed a level of maturity usually not seen in most fighters with a relatively small number of fights under their belt. This fight will only be Holm’s 3rd UFC fight, but she has won 33 out 38 boxing matches, so she is probably the most experienced opponent that Rousey has faced.

If Holm somehow pulls off the upset she will become an overnight Star in the world of MMA. I think she has a better chance of winning than the odds would suggest and she certainly represents the better betting value. However, I’m just not sure that Holm has the athletic ability and agility required to fend off Rousey’s relentless attack.

Prediction: Rousey wins by Submission (Armbar), 2nd Round.

POST FIGHT THOUGHTS:

Well, I can honestly say that am I not shocked that Ronda Rousey was dethroned. Given Ronda’s record it was very hard to pick against her and I did not, but I thought there was a distinct chance that Holm and her team would figure out a way to upset Rousey and that is indeed what happened. Holm’s superior boxing skills did serve her very well and she clearly knows how to throw an effective kick. Greg Jackson & Co. came up with a perfect game plan and Holly executed.

As I mentioned above, I thought Holm offered the better value as a bet. Gosh, if only I was in Vegas for this fight!?! That would have been a nice return on investment!!

Woman’s Bantamweight: Ronda Rousey 8-0 (-420) vs. Sara McMann 7-0 (+375)

McMann won a Silver medal as wrestler in the 2004 Olympics and is probably the best athlete that Rousey has been faced with to date. However, McMann’s MMA game is simply not as well rounded as Rousey’s is, especially in view of RR’s improved striking. Ronda would probably like to win this fight in some manner other than securing an arm bar, just to show us all that she can. But Rousey is a very smart fighter and she will take what McMann gives her. If the arm bar is available then Rousey will take it and she won’t fool around because McMann is capable of winning this fight if RR lets her guard down.

Rousey wins by submission, 2nd Rd.

Light Heavyweight: Daniel Cormier 13-0 (-925) vs. Patrick Cummins 4-0 (+725)

This might be the most interesting fight of the evening. Patrick Cummins makes his UFC debut against one of the best fighters in all of MMA. Cummnins was working in a coffee shop in Dana Point, CA two weeks ago. Cormier was scheduled to fight Rashad Evans, but Evans had to withdraw due to knee injury suffered in training. Cummins was offered an opportunity to step in and he leaped at it. Cummins previously served a wrestling training partner for Cormier and claims he got the better of Cormier in training, when Cormier was preparing for the Olympics. Cummins is a very good athlete and earned All- American honors twice as a wrestler at Penn St. He has also won all 4 of his MMA fights in the old Strikeforce promotion.
Cummins may prove to be a capable UFC fighter, but I find it hard to believe he can win this fight with only about 10 days of preparation time. However, anything can happen in MMA and if I had to bet on this fight I would probably want to place a small bet on Cummins simply because of the payoff with Vegas making him the +725 underdog.

Cormier wins by TKO, 3rd Rd.

Welterweight: Rory MacDonald 15-2 (-295) vs. Demian Maia 18-5 (+265)

An important fight for two top ten welterweights coming off losses. The winner will remain in the hunt for a championship fight. Both are well rounded fighters, but MacDonald is 24 and Maia is 36. The loser may not see that opportunity for a long time, if ever. Maia has real shot if he can take this fight to ground and use his world class Jui-Jitsu (former world champion). That will tough task because MacDonald is quick, a great striker and has good take down defense. He is also very experienced for age and has trained for years with fellow Canadian , and UFC icon, Georges St. Pierre. Like GSP, MacDonald is also a very good wrestler, so even if Maia does manage to take MacDonald down he may not find him easy to deal with on the ground, yet that is where Maia would seem to have his best chance.

MacDonald wins by decision

What might be the most anticipated rematch in UFC history is finally here as Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman faces off against Anderson Silva, the man he defeated with an absolutely stunning 2nd round knockout to win the UFC MW belt last July. There are several other interesting fights on the card, including Ronda Rousey vs Miesha Tate and Josh Barnett vs Travis Browne.

Middleweight Championship

Champion Chris Weidman (10-0) +155 vs Former Champion Anderson Silva (33-5) -165

Silva is the slight favorite for this fight, but this is fight is essentially a toss up in my view. After going back and forth several times I finally picked Weidman to retain his title, but this fight could easily go either way because both fighters are have diverse MMA skill sets and have demonstrated the ability to end fights via KO or submission. I can’t say that would want to bet much on this fight if I was in Vegas. Both fighters seemed to be calm and confident at the weigh in and at other pre-fight meetings between the two. I’m sure both men think they can and will win this bout. I expect that we will see a more serious and more focused Anderson Silva in this fight and that makes him extremely dangerous. But I think Weidman is at the top of game and in his physical prime at 29. The 38 yr old Spider Silva had not shown any signs of age up until his loss to Weidman. That defeat has made many wonder if Father Time is finally catching up with Silva. That may indeed be the case, but I think Weidman, with top notch wrestling, jiujitsu and his formidable striking would have posed a real threat to Silva at any point in his career.

Weidman wins by submission, 2nd Rd.

Women’s Bantamweight Championship

Champion Ronda Rousey (7-0) -700 vs Meisha Tate (13-4) +510

We have another rematch here. Rousey and Tate fought each other back in March of 2012 when both were fighting in Strikeforce. I remember that fight well. It was non-stop action for nearly a full round, before Ronda was able to secure an arm bar and win in her signature fashion. I’ve got to think that Tate has spent a lot time preparing to defend the arm bar, but will she be able stop the relentless Rousey? Rousey is very well conditioned and her trainers do an excellent job of preparing her. I’m not sure that Rousey deserves to be the massive favorite that she is (-700 is too high for me), but the undefeated champ should definitely be the favorite. However, Tate always shows a lot heart and will come out swinging. I would give Tate a puncher’s chance of winning.

Rousey wins by Submission 2nd Rd.

Heavyweight

Josh Barnett (33-6) -185 vs Travis Browne (15-1) +160

This is a very consequential fight in the Heavyweight division because these to fighters are attempting to position themselves for a title shot a the winner of this fight will probably only need one more victory to get a coveted opportunity to fight for the UFC Heavyweight championship. Barnett is a former UFC HW Champ, but he left the promotion to fight for other organizations way back in 2003 and returned earlier this year. Barnett made short work of UFC HW vet Frank Mir in return fight and now the up and coming Browne stands in his way, Bartnett is 36 and Browne is 31, but it seems like there is a greater difference in age than there is because Barnett has had so many fights. I think this experience gives the 6’4″ Barnett an edge and it will enable him to defeat the 6’7″ Browne, but it won’t be easy. Browne showed great will and resilience in last fight, a victory over the imposing Alistair Overeem.

Barnett wins by TKO, 2nd Rd.

The UFC visits Toronto and the main event of UFC 165 tonight features a very interesting battle for the Light Heavy Weight crown between Champion Jon Jones and Swedish challenger Alexander Gustafasson. The rest of the 165 card is decent, but Jones vs Gustafasson stands out as the most intriguing fight of the evening in my opinion. In the wake of the recent by Anderson “Spider” Silva to Chris Weidman Jon Jones is now widely acknowledged as the best pound for pound MMA fighter in the world and whenever he fights it is a must see event for serious MMA fans. A strong case for Jones being the PFP best could have been made prior to Silva’s defeat, but now that case is very difficult to dispute.

Jon “Bones” Jones, 19-1, (-850) vs. Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafasson, 15-1, (+550)

Vegas has installed Jones the heavy favorite for this fight and I understand that and agree that he should be. I think very highly of Jones and always have. Just read some my previous blog posts about him. He does everything well and can win via a KO or a submission. He is always in good shape and is always well prepared by his trainer, Greg Jackson. It is hard to envision a scenario in which he would lose to any top ten fighter in the LHW division if he is at his best.

However, I still think Gustafasson has a legitimate outside shot of scoring an upset and being crowned the new UFC LHW Champ. I usually don’t feel that way when the odds are this lopsided, but Gustafasson is a very good striker (9 KO’s) and is a very well rounded MMA fighter in other respects. Gustafasson was a relatively weak wrestler and his only loss occurred a few years ago to Phil Davis, a former D-1 wrestling champ. What did he do in response to that? He started training with Davis at the Team Alliance gym in San Diego (Chula Vista) and now he has developed good wrestling skills, which he will need against Jones, who is an excellent wrestler.

At 6’5″, The Mauler also presents Jones with a challenge he hasn’t faced before, an opponent who is actually taller than he is, by one inch, although Jones still maintains a reach advantage (84.5 inches vs 76.5 inches). Both fighters are 26 years old.

So here I am making the case for Gustafasson, but would I bet on him if I was in Vegas right now? Maybe a small bet because the payoff, but I really think Jones is going to win. However, Jones is such a heavy favorite I think betting on him is relatively poor value proposition. I don’t think betting on any MMA fighters at -700 or higher is advisable if they are facing a capable opponent and I think Gustafasson falls into that category.

Jones wins by TKO in the 3rd round.

UFC 162 appears to have the potential to be outstanding MMA event. Any UFC event that features the great Anderson Silva is going to be special, but this event has a lot more going for it than just Spider Silva vs the formidable Chris Weidman in a fight for the UFC Middleweight Championship. I think every fight on the main card could be good, if not great. Although would also say that every one of these fights, with possible exception of one is a very tough call. I can’t say that I would want to bet a lot of money on any of the fights on the main card.

Middleweight Championship

Anderson “Spider” Silva (-260) vs. Chris Weidman (+220)

Well, here is another case where I am faced with a choice of who I want to win vs. who I think will win. I want Chris Weidman to win. I like Weidman for a variety of reasons: He is from the NYC area, former D-1 All American wrestler at Hofstra Univ., he is has become a great MMA fighter (9-0) So, overall, I think Weidman has a great story.

I think CW does have a real shot at defeating Anderson Silva tonight, but if I had to bet I would bet on Silva because he is simply the best UFC fighter of all time and although he is 38 years old there are no signs that Father Time has slowed him yet. Silva has had 37 MMA fights (33-4) and he is undefeated in the UFC, having successfully defended his title 11 times. Both of these fighters have KO ability, but Silva can knockout opponents out with either his hands or his feet. I watched a few of CW’s fights and I think he leaves himself open to strikes too much to survive against Silva’s precision striking. If CW is able takedown Silva multiple times he may be able to submit Silva or pound him out, but that will be a very tall order. As we have seen time and again, Silva just waits for his opponent to give him one opening and then he ends it (20 KO’s).

Silva win by KO in the 3rd round.

Featherweight

Frankie Edgar (-550) vs. Charles Oliveria (+425)

This is the one fight on the main card in which the Sports Books have installed a heavy favorite, in this case former UFC Lightweight Champ Frankie Edgar at -550 (meaning you have to bet $550.00 to win $100.00).

Gotta go with Edgar, the Jersey guy, in this fight.

Edgar wins by TKO 3rd Rd.

Middleweight

Tim Kennedy (-145) vs. Roger Gracie (+125)

This will be the first UFC fight for both of these gentlemen, who both moved over to the UFC from Strikeforce.

Interesting stylistic match-up here. Kennedy, a U.S. Army Special Forces Vet, is a very good all-around MMA fighter, but doesn’t have a single MMA skill that really stands out. At 5’11” Kennedy a compact, powerful striker who can also wrestle well, but may not want to go to the ground against the 6’4″ Roger Gracie, who is a highly decorated Jiu-Jitsu Champion. Yes, Gracie, is from the famous Gracie family, who are legendary in the world of Jiu-Jitsu.

Roger Gracie is 6-1 in MMA competition, his one loss coming against Muhammed Lawal back in Strikforce, when Lawal KO’d him in the 1st Rd. I think Kennedy may be able to do the same thing, but perhaps not in first round. I would also add that Kennedy was able to avoid a submission by Jacare Souza during the course of a 5 round fight they had back in Strikeforce. Kennedy did lose that fight to Jacare by decision, but Jacare is an absolutely top notch Jiu-Jitsu practitioner and grappler, so Gracie may find that Kennedy is very difficult to submit.

Tim Kennedy wins by TKO 2nd Rd.

Middleweight

Mark Munoz (-135) vs. Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch (+115)

Both of these guys are very solid middleweights. They have similar strengths, both are excellent wrestlers and solid strikers.

This fight is really a toss up in my view. Will they both be in good shape? They appear to be.
Boetsch win by decision.

Featherweight

Cub Swanson (-225) vs. Dennis Siver (+185)

Swanson is on 4 fight win streak, with an overall record of 19-5.

Siver is a dangerous kick boxer from Germany, with a record of 21-8.

This could could be close, but I think Swanson is the more powerful striker and will prevail.

Cub Swanson wins by decision.