Category: UFC

UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs. Rockhold

Posted on by georgefattell

I want to watch this event mainly to see the UFC debut former Strikeforce Champ Luke Rockhold and the man he won that belt from, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. Both Rockhold and Jacare are considered top ten Middleweights and it will be very interesting to see how they fare against UFC competition tonight and going forward. So far, the Strikeforce fighters that were brought over to the UFC have performed very well and Rockhold and Jacare were two of the best fighters from that promotion, if not the two best. I expect both of them to do well in the UFC and I think it is possible that they will both challenge for the UFC Middleweight crown within the next few years.

Middleweight

Luke Rockhold (-115) vs Vitor Belfort (+105)

From what I have seen most Sports books are installing Rockhold as a very, very slight favorite for this fight, but the odds are essentially even. I think this fight is an extremely tough one to call and I wouldn’t want bet on it one way or another. If I had to pick I would take Rockhold, but the veteran Belfort is very capable of winning this fight in a variety of ways, with either his fists or his feet. Just ask Michael Bisping, Vitor’s last KO victim, who was leveled by a head kick that came out nowhere and then pummeled by punches that swiftly ended their fight at the 1:27 mark of the 2nd round. Belfort has had a long MMA career and previously has fought in the Heavyweight class and Light Heavyweight class. He has pretty much seen it all and done it all and has a record of 22-10. His only losses since 2006 have come to Anderson Silva and Jon Jones, both current Champs.

Rockhold, the last Strikeforce Middleweight Champ, also possesses a multi-faceted MMA game. His MMA record is 10-1. He a very good wrestler and is a former IBJJF World Jiu-Jitsu Champion. Rockhold has also become a fairly good striker and trains at the highly respected American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) in San Jose, CA. AKA is also home to the current UFC Heavyweight Champ, Cain Velasquez, as well as Daniel Cormier, Jon Fitch, Gray Maynard and Josh Thomson, among others. I think AKA has probably prepared Rockhold very well for this fight.

I think Rockhold, who is right in his prime at 28 years of age, has the skills to avoid a submission or KO and may outlast the 36 year old Belfort. This fight is in Belfort’s native Brazil and if Rockhold can go in there and secure a victory over Belfort in a hostile environment it will be a defining moment for him and may lead him a fight with with another legend, current UFC Middleweight Champ Anderson Silva.

Rockhold wins by decision.
Middleweight

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-570) vs Chris Camozzi (+480)

Jacare is also from Brazil and he will no doubt want to put on a good show for the home crowd. The 33 yr old Jacare has been a grappler and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner for well over a decade. He is a 5 time World Jiu-Jitsu Champ and holds a professional MMA record of 17-3-1. 13 of his victories were by submission, but he has now developed dangerous striking skills as well, so he is indeed a very well rounded MMA fighter.

I haven’t seen much of Camozzi, but he seems to be well regarded by the MMA media. He took this fight on short notice as a substitute for the injured Constantinos Philippou. Probably a smart move on his part, because he is not expected to win, but if he does pull off the upset it will be a huge boost to his career. Even if he challenges Souza and gives him a good fight it will probably raise his standing in the UFC. Camozzi is very big 185’er at 6’3″, has a record of 19-5 and is on a 5 fight win streak in the UFC. However, he has never faced anyone nearly as good as Souza. To be honest, I’ll be shocked if Jacare loses this fight.

Jacare wins by submission, 2nd Round.

UFC 159 – Newark, NJ

Posted on by georgefattell

Wow, what a great fight card Dana White & Co. have put together for UFC 159 at the Rock, in Newark, New Jersey. All five fights on the Main card have the potential to be very good fights in my humble opinion.

Light Heavyweight Championship

Champion Jon Jones (-925) vs. Chael Sonnen (+725)

Jon “Bones” Jones is a heavy favorite and justifiably so, but I still find this fight very intriguing because I think Sonnen’s may, and I emphasize the word “may”, be able to find a way exploit a weakness in Jones that we have not seen yet. Sonnen is a very smart, well-rounded fighter and he is fearless and relentless. This a classic clash between Sonnen, a crafty veteran who is still at or near his peak as a fighter, and Jones, a young champion who has been able to defeat all challengers to date ( not counting the controversial fight he lost to Matt Hamill by DQ for illegal elbow strikes prior to becoming champion). Jones combines a very rounded MMA skill set with truly exceptional athletic ability. He is also extremely well coached by the now famous (at least in MMA circles) Greg Jackson of New Mexico.

I am a fan of both fighters and have been for a long time. I think Jones will probably win, but he is such a heavy favorite that I would not want to bet on him at -900 or -1000. The risk/reward is not favorable because crazy Chael Sonnen just might find a way to deliver the huge upset.

Jones wins by TKO in the third round.

Middleweight

Michael Bisping (-170) vs. Alan Belcher (+160)

These two guys are both desperate to win and stay in the mix among the contenders in this division. They also seem to really hate each other. Forget these fighters taking a conservative approach. I expect a lot of fists to fly early in this fight.

Bisping wins by TKO in the 3rd.

Heavyweight

Roy Nelson (-230) vs. Cheick Kongo (+210)

Roy “The Belly” Nelson will prove to be too much for Kongo imo. Nelson doesn’t look like much an athlete, but he is really an exceptional wrestler and packs real power in this fists. Kongo is very strong too, but I don’t think he is nearly as polished a fighter as Nelson.

Roy Nelson wins by KO in the 2nd Round.
Light Heavyweight

Phil Davis (-280) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (+255)

I am very tempted to go with Magalhaes, the underdog, here. Davis is a great athlete and a top notch wrestler, but I still think other parts of his MMA skill set need work. However, I’m going to pick Davis to win because I don’t think Magalhaes is quite good enough to defeat Davis. Magalhaes has a strong ground game, but it is hard to see how he will be able to take down Davis, who was a D-1 wrestling champ at Penn State.

Davis wins by decision.

Lightweight

Jim Miller (-260) vs. Pat Healy (+240)

This fight should be a very tough scrap. I expect Miller, a Jersey guy, to be a little extra motivated fighting in front of the home crowd. Healy is a former Strikeforce champ and I expect him to give Miller a very serious challenge. Most of the Strikeforce fighters that were invited to join the UFC have acquitted themselves very so far in the Octagon and I think we will see Healy continue that trend. However, I just don’t think Healy will be able to defeat the extremely tenacious Miller, who owns a multifaceted MMA game and can win standing or on the ground.

Miller wins by decision.

UFC 157: Rousey vs. Carmouche at Anaheim, CA

Posted on by georgefattell

There are two fights I am really interested in on this card:

1) The Main event, featuring the fight female fight in the UFC, as former Strikeforce Bantamweight Champ Ronda Rousey (6-0) takes on former U.S. Marine Liz Carmouche (8-2).

2) The Light Heavyweight battle between Dan Henderson (29-8) and Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (18-3)

Ronda Rousey is a huge favorite (-1200) over Carmouche (+775) and that is probably justified because no female fighter has come close to defeating RR as she has won all six of her fights in the first, using her Olympic level judo skills to secure arm bars vs all her previous opponents. It is hard to see how Carmouche will avoid the same fate. Carmouche lost a 3 rd decision to Rousey’s last opponent, Sarah Kaufman. It took Rousey only 54 seconds to defeat Kaufman. It will be impressive if Carmouche can take this fight past the first round. All that said, Rousey better not take Carmouche too lightly, because Carmouche has delivered TKO’s vs. four opponents.

I don’t think Rousey will underestimate Carmouche. There is lot riding on this fight for Rousey and the UFC.

Rousey by Submission, 2nd round.

Henderson vs. Machida is a great fight on paper, matching up two of the very best Light Heavyweights in the UFC. Machida is a favorite at -220 vs +170 for Henderson, but this fight could very easily go either way because both fighters have proven that they have the ability to deliver
KO’s. Hendo has put 13 opponents to sleep, while Machida has done the same to 7 opponents. Machida is the best pure martial artist in the UFC and Henderson has demonstrated that he is very dangerous as both a striker and a wrestler (He represented the U.S. in the Olympics as a Greco-Roman wrestler).

This fight is a very tough call me because both fighters are so skilled and I also like both fighters. They are both class acts. However, I’m going to have to pick Machita to win because he is still in his prime at 34, while Henderson is in the twilight of his career at age 42. To be fair, I must say that there really hasn’t been much of a noticeable decline in Henderson’s ability yet, but Henderson is coming off a knee injury and has not fought in a year. I think ring rust for Henderson may give Machita an advantage. Machita, with his karate influenced fighting style, has also demonstrated that he can be very elusive in the Octagon and that may enable him to avoid Henderson’s vaunted overhand right, known as the H-Bomb.

Machita wins by decision.

UFC 155 – Las Vegas: Predictions

Posted on by georgefattell

The UFC ends 2012 with a pretty good card in the Vegas. I noticed that some mma fans are a little disappointed in the overall quality of this card because some big names had drop out due to injury, but think this card is still very appealing and has the potential to provide very competitive fights. The top four fights are all fairly close in terms of odds, there are no overwhelming favorites. I think the oddsmakers have it right. I have decided who I think is going to win these fights, but I can’t say I would want to go “all in ” on any single fighter who will be action in the top four fights. Without further ado, here are my picks:

Heavyweight Championship:

Champion Junior Dos Santos (15-1) vs. former champ Cain Velasquez (10-1)

This is rematch. The first time these two met Cain was the HW Champ, but he didn’t leave the Octagon as champ because Dos Santos KO’d him at the 1:04 mark of the fight. Dos Santos is simply the best boxer, by far, in the UFC HW division. Dos Santos trains with Team Nogueira in Brazil and has a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Dos Santos claims he is capable of handling himself on the ground if he gets taken down, but no HW that he has faced in UFC has been able to get him down and keep him there, and he has already faced some fighters with very good take down skills, such as Shane Carwin, Frank Mir and Gabriel Gonzaga.

Velasquez was an excellent NCAA DIV I wrestler at Arizona State, placing 5th in the U.S. in 2005 and 4th in 2006. He later moved on to train at American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) in San Jose, where he has developed a strong mma skill set, and has added boxing, muay thai and Jiu Jitsu to his mma arsenal. Velasquez also fights at a very fast pace and up until he met Dos Santos it did not seem that any UFC HW could beat him. He was, of course, undefeated in the UFC, before that first fight with JDS. However, Dos Santos was the first really high caliber striker that Velasquez had faced and he clearly wasn’t able to defend against the barrage of strikes were thrown at him.

Cain may indeed have the better all around mma skill set, but will he have an opportunity to use all his skills? I don’t think he will. I think Dos Santos will once again use his exceptional boxing and takedown defense to keep this fight standing and in the end Velasquez will not be able to fend off Junior’s powerful strikes.

Dos Santos wins by KO, 2nd round.

Lightweight: Joe Lauzon (22-7) vs. Jim Miller(21-4)
This might be the most competitive fight of the night. Both of these fighters are very well rounded and have complete mma skill sets, but Jui-Jitsu is a strength for both. Miller is also a good wrestler. He wrestler at the high school level in Sparta, New Jersey and later in college, at Virginia Tech. Lauzon is particularly dangerous in the first round. He usually starts at a very fast pace and is always looking for a quick submission. However, Lauzon also takes risks with some moves, leaving himself open to being submitted and he tends to fade in later rounds. Miller is a very durable fighter, with a good chin and high endurance. I think Miller will have the advantage if this fight goes beyond the first round and I think it will because I think Miller is too strong and skilled on ground to be submitted by Lauzon.

Miller by submission, 3rd rd.

Middleweight: Tim Boetsch (16-4) vs. Constantinos Philippou (11-2)

Basically, this breaks down to a wrestler vs. boxer battle. Boetsch is a former NCAA Division I wrestler (Lock Haven University in PA) and is also a Black Belt in Jeet Kune Do. Philippou is a Greek Cypriot who originally pursued boxing before deciding to become a mma fighter. His professional record as a boxer is 3-0, but he also has 60 amateur fights to his credit. After moving to the U.S. he joined the Serra-Longo gym on Long Island and has developed other aspects of his mma game there, including wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, but he still relies heavily on his boxing skills.

Boetsch is a smart fighter and I think he knows he would likely lose this fight if it remains standing and becomes a boxing match. I think Boetsch will attempt to take this fight to the ground and use superior wrestling ability to win this fight. This fight could very well be decided by the effectiveness of Philippou’s takedown defense. Philippou may indeed have good takedown defense, we’ll see. He trains with Chris Weidman, one of the best wrestlers in the UFC at Serra-Longo. Ironically, Weidman was originally scheduled to fight Boetsch at UFC 155, but had to withdraw due to a training injury. I probably would have picked Weidman to win that fight, but I can’t pick Philippou to win against Boetsch because I think Boetsch’s greater mma experience and his more diverse skill set will give him the upper hand.

Boetsch wins by decision.


Middleweight: Alan Belcher (18-6) vs. Yushin Okami (28-7)

This fight presents another rematch. Okami won the first fight between them by decision, back in 2006. Both of these fighters are very well rounded. Okami has a black belt in Judo, but he can wrestle and box well too. Belcher has a background in Kickboxing, Taekwondo, Jiu Jitsu and Judo.
Both of these guys can are capable on their feet or on the ground.
Belcher has won his last four fights and I think he is hotter fighter right now. I expect his win streak to continue.

Belcher wins by decision.

UFC Fox 5 – Seattle

Posted on by georgefattell

The UFC returns to free TV on Fox with an outstanding fight card in Seattle. I’m a little pressed for time today, so my analysis will be a little shorter than usual.

The top three fights are of particular interest to me and should be very competitive. I think each fight could go either way. Of course there are favorites for each fight, but each fighter in these fights is experienced, well rounded and dangerous. All are capable of KO’ing their opponent if given the chance.

Welterweight Championship

Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz: Since this is a championship fight it will be 5 rounds. I expect Benson Henderson to successfully defend his belt in this fight. Diaz poses a real threat to Henderson because he is a very skilled striker, but I think Henderson will be prepared for that and he will bring the fight to the ground where he can use his superior wrestling ability.

Henderson wins by TKO, 4th round.

Maurcio “Shogun” Rua vs. Alexander “The Mauler” Gustaffson: I’ve been going back and forth on this fight all week. Gustaffson is one of the hottest young fighters in the UFC and he looks very tough on paper. At 6’5″ Gustaffson will have a definite size and reach advantage over Rua, but I think Rua will try to neutralize that advantage by bringing the fight to the ground. Gustaffson’s take-down defense will be tested and his ability to win the fight may hinge on whether or not he can keep the fight standing for the most part, where his sharp striking could prove to be a problem for Rua. This fight may also come down to conditioning. If Rua is in anything less than top shape I think he will lose to Gustaffson, but based on what I have read about Shogun conditioning he should be well prepared for this fight.

Shogun Rua wins by decision.

BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald: This fight should be a total war because these two truly hate each other and they are both a little crazy. This fight, like Rua vs Gustaffson, pits a seasoned, decorated former champ against a very promising young fighter who is thought to have the potential to be a future champion. In this case I have to pick the young gun, Rory MacDonald. BJ Penn is always dangerous because of his very diverse mma skill set. He can KO an opponent with his hands or his feet and he has pretty much seen it all. I can’t say I will be shocked if he finds a way to defeat MacDonald, but if I had to bet on this fight I would go with MacDonald. MacDonald will have significant size advantage and his conditioning is excellent. MacDonald trains at Tristar in Montreal with GSP so he should be very prepared for what Penn might throw at him. In the end I don’t think that Penn will be able to keep up with the pace that MacDonald will set and I think MacDonald’s wrestling will wear down Penn.

MacDonald wins by TKO, 3rd round.

POST EVENT COMMENTS:

I went 2 and 1 with my picks. I wish I had gone 3 and 0, but given the relative parity of these fighters I will take that.

First off, the fight I was wrong on, which was Rua vs. Gustaffson. As I noted in my analysis, I thought this fight was a fairly even match up. I knew that Gustaffson would present a serious challenge to Rua, but I thought Rua’s experience would give him an edge in this fight. Rua did seem to be in decent condition, but he was pushed throughout the fight by the young Swede. Gustaffson demonstrated that he has added a few new facets to his mma game, most notably good wrestling moves, especially his take downs.

Gustaffson has been mentioned a potential rival to LHW Champ Jon Jones and prior to this impressive victory by The Mauler I thought that talk was premature. I thought Gustaffson might be a couple of years away from being able to seriously challenge Jones, but this fight has changed my mind. I think Gustaffson is ready for Jones now, which is not to say I think he would win. I think Gustaffson would have a legitimate chance to win that fight and he should be given a shot at the Champ sometime late in 2013, assuming that Jones defeats Chael Sonnen, who he is scheduled to fight in April of 2013.

The other two went pretty much as a expected, except that I thought there would be KO’s ending these fights and they both were won by decision.

Benson Henderson defended his LW belt in very impressive fashion with his defeat of #1 contender Nate Diaz. I thought Diaz would have a problem with Henderson’s elite level wrestling and he did.

Rory MacDonald may send BJ Penn back into retirement with his very decisive victory over the Hawaiian mma legend.

MacDonald said he wants a rematch with Carlos Condit, the one man who has beaten him. I hope Condit agrees to that fight because it would be an excellent match-up. Frankly, I’m not sure who would be the favorite, but the odds would be close.

UFC 154: St. Pierre vs. Condit – Montreal

Posted on by georgefattell

The UFC returns to Montreal and hometown hero Georges St. Pierre returns to the UFC after being out of the sport for 18 months due to the fact that he tore his ACL in December of 2011.

St. Pierre’s fight against Carlos Condit will decide the UFC Welterweight championship and another Welterweight fight on this card may decide who gets the next shot at the Welterweight belt. That fight is Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks. I think those are the two most interesting fights on the card.

Martin “Hitman” Kampmann (20-5) vs. Johny “Big Rig” Hendricks (13-1)


Fighting Styles:

Kampmann: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Muay Thai.

Hendricks: Boxing, Wrestling (Former NCAA DIV I Wrestling champ at 165 pounds, Oklahoma State)

This should be an excellent fight, although I’m not sure how long it will last because fighters can throw very punches and have KO ability. Now, I’m sure they are both aware of that so they may exercise some caution and not just come out throwing bombs, although I think Hendricks will throw his deadly left hand any time he sees an opening.

Kampmann has proven to be a very resilient fighter, who knows how to find ways to win when he is behind. The Danish fighter, training out of Las Vegas with team Xtreme Couture, has developed a very well rounded MMA game. He prefers to keep fights standing in order to use his exceptional striking skills, but he can be dangerous on the ground with his Jiu-Jitsu. Kampmann has won 8 fights by KO and 7 fights by submission.

On paper this seems like a pretty close match up. If I thought that Kampmann could keep this fight standing I would probably pick him to win, but I don’t think that will be the case. I’m going to give the edge to Hendricks because I think the combination of his power punching and his world-class wrestling will prove to be too difficult for Kampmann to defend.

Hendricks wins by KO, 2nd round.

Georges St. Pierre (22-2) vs. Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (28-5)

Figthing Styles:

St. Pierre: Karate, Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Condit: Kickboxing, Muay Thai, Boxing, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

The fight will unify the UFC Welterweight title. Condit has held the title of interim Champ during St. Pierre’s extended absence due to ACL reconstruction surgery. St. Pierre and Condit are two of favorite fighters in the UFC because they both very skilled, well-rounded, intelligent fighters and they are both generally respectful of their opponents.

I think very highly of Condit’s ability. His defeat of the very formidable Nick Diaz really impressed me. That fight showcased Condit’s very well rounded ability as an MMA fighter and it also demonstrated that he is a very smart and disciplined fighter who can stick to a plan to defeat an opponent who in some respects might be more skilled. Diaz wanted to draw Condit into strictly a stand up fight and just trade strikes with him because Diaz has good hands and excels at boxing. Diaz taunted Condit in a number of ways in an effort to get him to just exchange strikes, but Condit used a full repertoire of strikes and kicks to keep Diaz at bay and ultimately won a very hard fought decision.

GSP will present an entirely different type of challenge to Condit. He won’t do any trash talking, but he will try to dictate where this fight goes. GSP is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC and he no doubt try to take this fight to the ground, where his strength and strong wrestling may give him an advantage over Condit. Both fighters are products of the famed Jackson’s MMA, in New Mexico, although Greg Jackson is remaining neutral for this fight and not training either fighter for this event. I don’t think that will matter too much because both fighters have assembled excellent training teams to support them.

I have read conflicting reports about GSP condition post recovery from ACL surgery. Some reports say he as good as new and others say he not 100% of what he once was. He looks petty good in the video of his training sessions that I have seen, but we really won’t know until he gets back in the Octagon for a real fight. If GSP is 100% of what he was that will prove to a real problem for Condit. GSP will probably be able to take down Condit fairly easily if he has retained his quickness and then Condit’s ground skills will be put to the test. OTOH, if Condit can keep the fight standing he probably stands a significantly better chance of winning the fight because his striking and kicks are very accurate and he does have KO power in his fists.

St. Pierre wins by unanimous decision.

POST EVENT COMMENTS:


Well, I went 2 for 2 tonight. I wish I had put some money down on these fights in Vegas.

Hendricks KO’d Kampmann in 46 seconds! Wow! I was really surprised that the Big Rig was able to land his powerful left hand so quickly because I know Kampmann was aware it would be coming. I watched a recent interview with Kampmann in which he acknowledged that Hendricks was dangerous with his left and that he didn’t want to get caught like Jon Fitch (who was KO’d by Hendricks in 12 seconds). Oh well, easier said than done I guess.

Georges St. Pierre won his fight against Carlos Condit in very convincing fashion with a unanimous decision, but Condit proved to be a very worthy opponent for the UFC Welterweight champ. GSP won the fight 4 rounds to 1, but Condit came close to finishing GSP in the 3rd round when he land a beautiful kick to the side of GSP’s head, which put him down on his back. Condit followed up by swarming GSP and landing some solid strikes. To GSP’s immense credit he was able to keep his composure and work his way back to his feet, surviving the round and Condit’s most serious threat to him in the fight. GSP used his superior quickness to execute take downs of Condit in the 4th and 5th rounds and punish him with relentless ground and pound. Still, Condit fought well off his back and delivered some strikes and elbows that definitely did some damage to GSP.

UFC 153: Can Stephen Bonnar really beat Anderson Silva?

Posted on by georgefattell

UFC 153 takes place in Rio de Janeiro tonight. The overall card is pretty good, it will include fights featuring HW Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Dave Herman, Welterweight Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva, LHW Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado and Welterweight Demian Maia vs. Rick Story. However, I think it is the main event which is the most intriguing fight of the event.

The main event for UFC 153 tonight features UFC Middleweight Champ Anderson Silva (32-4) fighting light heavyweight Stephen Bonnar (15-7) at LHW limit of 205 pounds. This fight was arranged only a month ago because previously scheduled main event, which was to feature Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar, had to be canceled due to an injury to Aldo. Being a good company man, Anderson Silva agreed to step in and fight an opponent at Light Heavy in a non-championship fight. The UFC then offered the fight to Stephen Bonnar and he
accepted the rare opportunity to fight a UFC legend.

Silva hasn’t lost a fight since 2006 (outside the UFC). Silva’s record in the UFC 15-0 and he is widely acknowledged as the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC. 35 yearr old Stephen Bonnar has had a solid career in UFC, but has never held a UFC title. He was the Runner-up (to Forrest Griffen) in the The Ultimate Fighter 1 way back in 2005. He is currently riding a 3 fight win streak.

The Odds: Silva is -1200 and Bonnar is +700 (although I have seen him as high as +800)

The means that if you $100 on Bonnar and he actually wins you would win $700. If you bet $1200 on Silva to win and he does you only win $100. So, the odds makers clearly see this as a fight that Bonnar has little chance of winning.

I don’t think I would want to put money on either side of this bet, but if I had to bet a little money on the fight I would bet on Bonnar. Silva just might do something careless or make a mistake that gives Bonnar an opportunity to put him away. Bonnar is no where near the athlete that Silva is, but he is a pretty well rounded veteran MMA fighter and he does know how to put opponents away. Bonnar’s 15 victories include 3 KO’s and 7 submissions. Bonnar is well versed in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo. Of course, Spider Silva is also very well versed in BJJ, Judo and Taekwondo. Silva’s one weakness is wrestling. Both Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen have taken Silva down in previous fights and inflicted some damage on him. Still, taking Silva Down is no easy task. His Take Down defense is very good. Henderson and Sonnen were both Olympic caliber wrestlers and even they could not finish off Silva once they did manage to get him down. Bonnar does not possess the wrestling ability of Dan Henderson or Chael Sonnen.

If the fight remains standing I don’t think Bonnar will be able to defend himself against Silva’s speed and precision striking. If Bonnar can bring the fight to ground he might have a little better chance, but again, bringing the fight there will be difficult for Bonnar to do and even if he does Silva has demonstrated that he can be very dangerous on his back, where he is always looking for the submission. Both Sonnen (1st fight, triangle choke) and Henderson (rear naked choke) lost to Silva on the ground.

Bonnar is a tough customer and he will fight hard, but I am going to predict that Silva wins by KO in the 2nd round.

POST FIGHT REVIEW:


Gee, I guess I underestimated Anderson Silva or over estimated Stephen Bonnar, or both. Spider Silva made short work of Bonnar and KO’d him in the first round. Bonnar was aggressive, but he had no answer for Silva’s speed. It appeared to me that Silva quickly estimated Bonnar’s speed and strength in the first two minutes of the fight and concluded that Bonnar could not throw anything that would really hurt him. Silva toyed with Bonnar by remaining standing against the cage and daring Bonnar to trade strikes. Silva easily dodged Bonnar’s strikes and when he found an opening he landed a powerful knee to Bonnar’s solar plexus and that put him down. Silva then delivered a few punches to the crumpled Bonnar’s head and the ref had to jump in. It was another good example of why Silva is so dangerous, he can end a fight with his fists or his legs. Not too many other fighters in the UFC can do that.

UFC 150 – Denver

Posted on by georgefattell

Looks like the Dana White & Co. have put together a pretty good card for UFC 150, including a very interesting fight for the Lightweight Championship.

Here are my picks for the top three fights:

Lightweight: Champion Benson Henderson (16-2) vs. Frankie Edgar (14-2)

Rematch of the top two lightweights. Henderson defeated then Champ Edgar by decision in their last fight, which was a brutal 5 round slugfest. Both fighters have great all-around mma skill sets and are extremely well conditioned. As always in this division, Edgar will give up size and weight to his opponent. Edgar is usually able to overcome those disadvantages with his superior conditioning and relentless pace, but Henderson can match Edgar there and seems to be even more athletic. Edgar has great intangibles and very strong will power. Edgar’s weakness is that sometimes he gets reckless and leaves himself open to dangerous strikes and kicks, which he did in his last fight against Henderson, who caught him with an up kick that changed the direction of that fight to Henderson’s favor. If Edgar can avoid making such mistakes this time he can win.

This is a very tough call, but I’m going to go with Edgar by decision.

Catchweight (157.5 lbs): Donald Cerrone (18-4) vs. Melvin Guillard (30-10)

I’m going to pick Cerrone to win by submission in the 2nd rd.

Middleweight: Jake Shields (27-6) vs. Ed Herman (20-7)

Shields returns to the middleweight division, after a mixed run in the UFC welterweight division. I think Shields will be more dangerous as a middleweight, with added muscle. Herman is a tough, up and coming middleweight, but I think Shields has superior wrestling ability and that will enable him to win this fight. I predict Shields wins by submission in the 3rd rd.

Post Event Comments:

Well, I went 2-1 with my picks, but it could have easily been 3-0 because Benson Henderson defeated Frankie Edgar by split decision. I thought both Henderson and Edgar were more conservative in this fight than they were in their first fight, but this fight was extremely close and really could have gone either way imo.

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen II – Las Vegas

Posted on by georgefattell

I’ve been too busy the last few days to write a detailed prediction for Silva vs. Sonnen II. However, I’m really looking forward to this fight.

It is a classic Striker vs. Wrestler showdown.

I’m very conflicted. See my tweets below. I can see it going either way, although I am giving the edge to Silva. However, I do want Chael Sonnen to win.

George Fattell ‏@GeorgeFattell
UFC 148 – I don’t really care about any fight on that card except the Main Event: Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen. Could be a Great fight!!
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8:03 PM – 6 Jul 12 via web · Details

George Fattell ‏@GeorgeFattell
UFC 148: I keep going back and forth on the Silva vs Sonnen fight. Gosh, very tough call. How can you bet against Silva? But……
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1:49 PM – 7 Jul 12 via web · Details

George Fattell ‏@GeorgeFattell
If everything goes right for Sonnen he has a chance imo. Unfortunately, I think Silva will win, but I will be rooting for Chael Sonnen.
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1:53 PM – 7 Jul 12 via web · Details

UFC 146 Las Vegas

Posted on by georgefattell

The Main Card for UFC 146 is comprised completely of Heavyweights of the first time. There will be a total of 5 fights, including Championship fight between current Champ Junior Dos Santos and former Champ Frank Mir. I’m expecting some very good fights tonight, although I’m not sure that any of the Heavyweight bouts will go the distance. UFC Heavyweights throw a lot of bombs and tonight should be no exception.

Here are my predictions for the top two fights on the main card.

Junior Dos Santos (14-1) vs. Frank Mir (17-5)

Dos Santos is a heavy favorite for this fight, and with good reason. Dos Santos is young, athletic and the best boxer in the UFC Heavyweight division, by far. Dos Santos also has good Take Down defense, which he will probably have to use because there is no doubt that Mir will try to bring this fight to the ground, which is where he has a chance to win. Frank Mir is very dangerous on the ground because of his exceptional jiu-jitsu and wrestling skills. He has broken the bones of several of his opponents. If Mir gets a good hold of one Dos Santos’s limbs this fight could be brought to a quick end by submission. Of course, Dos Santos is well aware of that and I think he will prove to be too quick and strong to be put in a vulnerable position on the ground by Mir. If Mir cannot bring down Dos Santos he will be trouble because his boxing, although improved in recent years, simply isn’t good enough to enable him last long if the fight remains standing.

Junior Dos Santos by TKO, 2nd Rd.

Cain Velasquez (9-1) vs. Antonio “Big Foot” Silva (16-3)

Two well rounded fighters squaring off here. Both fighters are probably better on the ground than they are standing, but both can deliver KO blows their fists.

Cain Velasquez wins by TKO, 3rd Rd.

I think the rest of the Main Card fights will be KO’s or submissions. I’m just not sure who who will win because I haven’t seen 4 out the remaining 6 Heavyweights fight enough to have a strong opinion.
I have seen Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve fight and I know both of them can deliver KO’s, but I’m not sure about their respective opponents.

POST EVENT COMMENTS:

Well, the top two fights went pretty much as I expected, although I must concede that I did not see Cain Velasquez making such short work of Bigfoot Silva. A very nasty, well placed elbow made the quick victory possible. It looks like Velasquez has taken note of dangerous elbows can be by watching a few Jon Jones fights.

Junior Dos Santos was indeed just too quick and agile for Frank Mir. Dana White indicated that he would like to see a Dos Santos vs. Velasquez rematch and I hope that happens as soon as possible. I would favor JDS again in that fight, but I expect the rematch would last significantly than the 64 seconds the first fight between them lasted. I think only a fighter with world class wrestling has a chance against JDS and Velasquez falls into that category.