UFC 111

UFC 111 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ presents two potentially great fights as the co-main events.

A welterweight title fight featuring the great UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy, a hard hitting up and comer from the UK. GSP is the heavy favorite and with good reason. GSP has no evident weaknesses in his MMA skill set. He can fight very well on his feet or on the ground and is always in tremendous condition. Hardy has an extensive martial arts background, but we haven’t seen much beside boxing in his UFC fights. Hardy has a puncher’s chance of winning this fight, but I don’t think he will prevail. I think GSP ends this 5 round fight by round 3, with a KO or TKO.

The other main event is a Heavyweight bout between former HW Champ Frank Mir and the undefeated Shane Carwin. Both men weighed in at the HW limit of 265 pounds. Mir was somewhat earlier in his career, but has built up his muscle mass in order to take on behemoths such as Carwin and current UFC HW Champ Brock Lesnar. Of course, Lesnar demolished Mir in when they last met in the Octagon and at that time Mir was 20 to 25 pounds lighter. Lesnar was able to throw Mir around and smother him in that fight. We’ll see if the added bulk helps Mir. This fight is a tough call because both fighters are very capable of ending the fight in round 1. Mir is a very skilled master of submitting opponents. Carwin is built like a tank and has KO power. I’ll go with the more experienced Mir to win, but I won’t be shocked if Carwin puts Mir to sleep.

Another interesting fight on this card pits Welterweights Jon Fitch against Ben Saunders. I’ll take the always formidable Fitch in this fight. If he wins he may get a rematch against GSP, who he lost to when they last fought.

UFC LIVE

There are two potentially really good UFC fights on tonight.

The Heavyweight bout features two very tough fighters from Brazil in Junior Dos Santos and Gabriel Gonzaga. I’ll take Dos Santos in this fight and I don’t expect this fight to make it past round 2 because both of these guys are bomb throwers, so a KO or TKO is very likely.

The other fight is a Light Heavyweight contest that pits Jon “Bones” Jones against Brandon Vera. I’m rooting for Vera to win this fight because he is a local guy that fights out of San Diego, but I think the odds are against him. If I had to bet on this fight my money would go on Jones. Why? Jones is simply too fast and multidimensional.

UFC 110

The co-main events look like they both could very good fights.

Antonio Norgueira vs. Cain Velazquez: I’ll take Big Nog. Cain Velazquez is certainly a very tough up and comer in the heavyweight division, but Nog represents a fighter with a much higher skill level than anyone Cain has yet faced in his UFC career. This fight will probably go to the ground early and despite the fact that Velazquez is an outstanding wrestler I think that is where Nog will have the advantage with his great BJJ skills. Velazquez has displayed great endurance in his previous fights, but he has not displayed KO power in his striking. I think Nog will find a way of submitting Velasquez.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping: This fight is a very tough call. These two really seem to hate each other and I don’t expect this fight to go the distance. This fight will end in a TKO/KO imo. The question is who gets KO’d? A years ago I would have selected Silva to win for sure, but I think he on the downside of his career now may not be able to match the quickness of Bisping. I’ll go with Bisping.

On the undercard I’ll take Ryan Bader over Keith Jardine.

UFC 108: Post event thoughts

The card for UFC 108 looked pretty weak due to the fact that so many fights had to be cancelled within the last few months due to an inordinate string of injuries that forced fighters to pull out. However, a lot of credit should be given to the UFC for putting together what turned out to be decent card that featured some very competitive fights.

The main event, Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva, was a very interesting, hard fought contest. Evans won by decision, but he definitely had his hands full with Silva, who came close to knocking Evans out in the third round. I picked Silva to win based on his punching power. Evans, to his credit, used his wrestling ability to take down Silva numerous times in first two rounds and neutralize his striking.

Welterweight Paul Daley and Heavyweight Junior Dos Santos also distinguished themselves win devastating KO’s of their opponents, each in the first round.

UFC 105, Couture vs. Vera

There is only one UFC 105 fight that I am really interested in and that would be Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera. Couture has dropped down to 205 lbs to fight in the LHW division and Vera should present him with a real challenge. Like Couture, Vera comes from a wresting background and has added other martial arts, such as boxing and BJJ, to his MMA skill set.

I think Couture is going win this fight, but I expect it to be a difficult fight for him and I think that it will go 3 rounds, with Couture winning by decision. I think Randy will try to test Vera’s chin early and often with strikes, but he will take to the ground to nullify Vera’s formidable kicking ability.

At some point Father Time will catch up to Couture and he will no longer be able to compete at the highest levels of MMA, but I don’t think that time has arrived yet, based on what I saw in Couture last two fights against Lesnar and Nogiera. He lost both of the those fights, but he fought well in both, against opponents who were significantly larger than him. That won’t be the case with Vera, with both men at the 205 lbs limit. Couture is about 6’1″, so 205 should be a very natural weight for him to fight at.

UFC 103

I am picking Rich Franklin to defeat Vitor Belfort and Junior dos Santos to defeat Cro Cop. Both fights were tough for me to pick because I haven’t seen much fight video for 3 out of 4 of these guys, the exception being Rich Franklin.

I based my predictions on my assessement of their records and fighting styles. All four seem to prefer stand up to ground game and they like to throw big punches, and in the case of Cro Cop big kicks too. I expect both fights to end with KO’s or TKO’s, one way or another. I feel like I’m putting more guesswork into these picks than I usually do, but I have no choice.

UFC 103 POST FIGHT

Well, I went 1 and 1 on predicted outcomes. Franklin was KO’d fairly easily by Belfort in the first round and dos Santos won a hard fought, brutal battle with Cro Cop in three rounds. Cro Cop had to ask the ref to stop the fight due to catching a punch right in the eye. He simply could not see and defend himself at that stage.

With those defeats the UFC careers of both Cro Cop and Franklin may have come to an end. It definitely looks like Cro Cop is done after that beating. Franklin did not sustain a lot damage in his quick defeat, but one has to wonder where he goes from here. The Middle weight division is dominated by Anderson Silva, who destroyed Franklin twice and the Light Heavy weight division probably has at least 5 or 6 fighters who are superior to Franklin. The road back to the top will be a hard one for him.

UFC 102

Some post fight thoughts on UFC 102. All in all, it turned out to be a fairly entertaining night of fights, highlighted by the Heavyweight battle between Randy Couture and Antonio Noguiera.

I made predictions on the co-main events and went 1 and 1 (my predictions were posted on my Twitter page). I was right on Thiago Silva beating Keith Jardine and I wrong on Couture beating Noguiera. My overall UFC prediction record, started at UFC 100, is now 5 right and 2 wrong.

UFC 101 post fight

Well, I went 2 for 2 tonight, although I thought Forest Griffin would last longer than 1 round. Anderson Silva totally dominated Griffin and KO’d him at 3:23 in the first Rd. It wasn’t close in any way. I now hope Dana White can arrange a fight between Silva and Lyoto Machida.

Penn submitted Florian in the 4th Rd. I got the round right, but I predicted TKO. Well, it came close to a TKO at several points. Florian gave it his all, but he was outclassed in the strength dept. and had no advantage in skills. Penn’s take down defense was very effective. Penn won every round in my opinion, but it was still a competitive fight. BJ Penn was a major step up for Florian and he is going to have to study this fight and improve in a number of areas if he hopes to defeat a fighter of Penn’s caliber in the future.

UFC 101 Predictions

I posted my predictions for UFC 100 on You Tube, but I can’t do that this time around due to a sore throat. So, I am going to take this opportunity to make my predictions here on the gmf journal blog. It has been my intention to get this blog rolling for the past few weeks and this seems to be as good a topic as any for my first post. I am going to use this blog to comment on a wide range of subjects that are of interest to me. Everything from sports and politics to science and religion. That and more. At some point in the future I would like to write other blogs that will that will be about specific subjects, but for now I’m going stick with writing one general interest blog. OK, on to UFC 101.

Light HWT Fight

Anderson Silva vs. Forest Griffin: I don’t see how Griffin can win this fight. Anderson Silva is just too good. The guy has no weaknesses. He can fight well on his feet or on the ground. Forest Griffin is also very well rounded. He will be well prepared and fights with a lot of spirit. I like Griffin, but I don’t see how he will last 3 rounds with Silva, because Griffin does not have KO power in his strikes. If Griffin could not KO Rampage Jackson or Rashad Evans I don’t see how he KO’s Silva. Anderson Silva, on the other hand, has plenty of KO power and can KO opponents with either his hands or his feet.

Silva wins by TKO, 2nd Rd.

Lightweight Fight

B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian: I have gone back and forth on this fight in past few weeks because these two seem to be pretty evenly matched. Each has their advantages, Penn is probably the better striker and Florian has stronger kicks (hey, he was a Div. I soccer player at Boston College). Both have strong ground games. Both also seem to be highly motivated for this fight. Penn wants restore his reputation after his one sided loss to Georges St. Pierre and Florian badly wants the recognition that a championship belt will bring him.

I think Penn wins this fight, but it will be a hard fought battle. In the end I still think Penn is most skilled UFC fighter at 155 pounds. Going up to 170 to face GSP was a bridge too far for him. He simply got overpowered by GSP and was also up against one of few fighters in UFC who had a superior MMA skill set. Florian will not be able to overpower Penn at 155 and does not have an MMA skill set that is superior to Penn’s imo.

Penn wins by TKO, 4th Rd.