NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Games

Posted on by georgefattell

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

In my NFL Playoff post last week I wrote that I expected the Patriots to win against the Colts, but that I didn’t think NE could beat Denver. My opinion hasn’t changed. Unfortunately, I think the players that Patriots have lost to injury, particularly TE Gronkowski, DT Wilfork and LB Mayo, put them at too much of a disadvantage to beat the Broncos in Denver. OTOH, Denver is also missing a key player, star LB Von Miller, but I think the Patriot losses hurt them more. Gronkowski played a huge role in the Partiots exciting come from behind OT victory over the Broncos back in Week 12, when they played in Foxboro, MA. Gronk always presents a very difficult match up problem for opposing defenses and he would have again in this game. The Patriots have done an admirable job in compensating for the players on defense, but can they shut down the Broncos? Forget that, can they significantly slow down the Broncos? I have my doubts, but we’ll see. Perhaps the most effective way for the Patriots to defend against Peyton Manning and his talented receivers will be to keep them off the field as much as possible. I’m sure Bill Belichick took note of the fact that Chargers were able to beat the Broncos in Denver during the regular season by running the ball as much as possible and dominating the time of possession. The Patriots running attack looked pretty potent last week against against Indy, with LaGarrette Blount leading the charge. I think NE will need a similar effort from their RB’s this week in order to have a real chance of winning. They also need WR’s Julian Edelman and Tommy Amendola to play at a high level and, needless to say, the Patriots need a strong game from star QB Tom Brady. So, basically, the Patriots will have to play at their absolute best to end Peyton Manning’s quest for a second SB ring.

Denver wins 35-31

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Well, I must say I always thought it was very possible that these two rivals would meet to decide the NFC championship. I felt that way going back to the preseason, although I also must admit that I thought they would be meeting in San Francisco. However, Seattle was certainly the better team during the regular season. I’m not so sure the Seahawks are the better team right now. As I noted in my NFL Playoffs post last week SF’s offense is quite a bit more effective now that they have all their starting skill position players back on the field. That definitely proved to be the case against Carolina, which has one of the best D units in the league. Seattle’s defense is arguably the best in the NFL and I think the battle between SF’s offense and Seattle’s D will decide the game. Seattle offense is good, but not exceptional in my view. RB Marshawn Lynch is excellent and QB Russell Wilson is very good, but no one else stands out on that offense (the Seahawks lost their starting WR’s to injury) and I think they will find it very challenging to score more than 21 points against the formidable 49er D. That means the Seahawks have to contain the fleet footed Colin Kaepernick, RB Frank Gore and a very talented group of receivers. This game should be a very interesting chess match between SF HC Jim Harbaugh (Stanford) and his former Pac 12 rival HC Pete Carroll (USC). I know I flip-flopped in going back to picking SF to the NFC. At the end of the regular season I thought Seattle was the team to beat, but the 49ers have been so impressive in the last two weeks that I had to go back to picking them to go to the SB.

San Francisco wins 24-17

The Tablet Is The New General Purpose Computer

Posted on by georgefattell

I totally agree with the author of this post about the ever increasing capabilities of the iPad and tablets in general. I can definitely see myself purchasing new tablets in the future (An iPad Air will probably be my next one), but I’m not so sure about purchasing another laptop. I could very easily see myself just going with a desktop computer/tablet combo in the future.

On another note, I thought this ad was just great. I think Steve Jobs would have loved it.

NFL Playoffs : Second Round Predictions

Posted on by georgefattell

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks absolutely destroyed the Saints 34-7 in Seattle on Dec 2nd. I do not expect that to happen again. I would think NO HC Sean Payton and his staff learned a lot from that game. I would also expect Saints QB Drew Brees to play a lot better.
However, I just don’t think the Saints will be able to make enough adjustments to overcome the talent advantage Seattle has on both sides of the ball. Seattle has the best Pass D in league, by far, and they defend the run very well too. The Seahawks offense is not one league’s best, but it is good, with the very capable Russell Wilson leading the attack at QB.

Seattle wins 28-17.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

As I mentioned in my previous post I have been extremely impressed by how well the Patriots have played given the adversity they have had to deal with this season as a result of losing so many key players to injury (and one to terminal stupidity – A. Hernandez). I think those losses will probably prevent them from winning another Superbowl this season. If NE was completely healthy I think they would have emerged as the favorite to win the Superbowl. The Patriots are still a very good team and at home they should be able to defeat the prolific Andrew Luck and the young Colts, even without Gronk, Wilfork and a few others, but I don’t think they can beat Denver without those players.

New England wins 35-24.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

This should be a fairly close game between two excellent teams that are both strong on both sides of the ball. They played in week 10 of the regular season in SF and the Panthers won 10-9. However, SF played that game without star WR Michael Crabtree and that really hurt the 49er passing attack. Crabtree is back and that makes a difference. SF’s offense was really hampered for extended periods of time during the regular season by loss of key receivers, such as Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis. But those guys are back and that makes SF QB Colin Kaepernick a lot more dangerous. SF also seems to have given Kaepernick the green light to run more in the playoffs (almost 100 yds rushing against GB) and use his 4.4 speed. Carolina’s D is outstanding, but I doubt they will be able to shut down SF as well as they did the last time they played. That means the Panther offense will probably have to score a lot more than 10 points to win this time around. Panther QB Cam Newton is a big X factor in this game. Newton is one of the most dangerous dual threat QB’s in the league, with a strong arm and the ability to rip off a 40 or 50 yard run if the defense gives him an opening. He is very much like his San Francisco counterpart in that respect. Veteran Panther WR Steve Smith is coming back from an injury to play in this game and he will be needed. Of course, it remains to be seen how effective he will be, but Carolina would be at real disadvantage without him. Again, I expect a hard fought battle, but I think SF HC Jim Harbaugh has a few more weapons at his disposal right now and that will give the 49ers the edge.

San Francisco wins 23-21

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos.

Denver is the big favorite here and they should be given their potent offense and impressive regular season record of 13-3.Of course, one of those losses was to the Chargers and it was the Broncos only home field loss, so Chargers fans, myself included are hoping that San Diego can duplicate that feat. It will be a real tall order for the Bolts to do that even though they appear to playing their best football of the year. The Broncos best defensive player, LB Von Miller, is out with an injury and the Chargers may be able to take advantage of that, although they may not be able to take full advantage of Miller’s absence because their star RB, Ryan Matthews, is still recovering from an ankle injury he suffered in week’s playoff game with Cincy. One of the keys to victory for the Chargers previous win over the Broncos was controlling the ball and time of possession. Matthews strong running in that game enabled the Chargers to eat up lots of clock and keep Peyton Manning off the field. Can the Chargers do that again? I think it will be harder because Matthews may not be a 100% and Denver has had time to make adjustments. On offense, Denver will no doubt benefit from the return of WR Wes Welker, who was out in the last game against the Chargers. Welker a great possession receiver and with help Manning enormously when he needs a 1st down or a TD in the red zone. So, do the Chargers have a chance? Hell yes, they do. Chargers QB Philip Rivers is playing at a very level and the Bolts will put points on the board, but I think it will probably take at least 35 points to beat Denver and that will be extremely challenging. If the Chargers can catch a break here or there and take advantage of a few turnovers they may be able to pull off the upset, but it will probably take some lucky bounces of the ball going the Chargers way.

Denver wins 35-28

NFL 2013: Regular Season Review

Posted on by georgefattell

I have reposted my NFL preseason picks for each division below and added my post season assessments.

AFC East: New England. Here is what I wrote about the Patriots last year: Easy pick here. I don’t see any other team in AFC East challenging the Pat’s, with their high octane offense and a defense that should be improved.

I feel pretty much the same way about the Pat’s this year. Miami looks like a decent team and they could post a winning record, but I don’t think that the Dolphins are capable of overtaking New England this season.

Well, no problem here. The Patriots easily won this division despite the challenge to dealing with numerous injuries and the loss of key starters on both offense and defense. Bill Belichick and his coaching staff deserve enormous credit for achieving a record of 12-4.

AFC North: Cincinnati.Tough call between Cincy and Pittsburg. The Bengals are the up and coming team in this division.

The Bengals performed as I expected. They may rule the AFC North for next few years.

AFC South: Houston. No change from last year. The Texans will be strong on both sides of the ball and I don’t see any of their division rivals challenging them.

I was totally wrong here. I never expected Houston to blow up in the way they did. It may be a long time before the Texans win this division again, because Indy could very good for the next decade or so if Andrew Luck continues to improve. I should have recognized Indy as a potential threat to take the division this season. I was actually very impressed by Andrew Luck last year, but I thought the Colts were still a year or two from surpassing the Texans.

AFC West: Denver. Well, Peyton Manning eliminated all doubts about his ability to play at high level again last season. The Broncos are by far the best team in this division. I think the Chargers have a chance of winning a wild-card slot, but they won’t challenge Denver this season.

Well, the Broncos were indeed the best team in the division, but I bet they never expected KC to be serious division rival. I certainly didn’t see the 11-5 Chiefs making such a big improvement in one year. Kudos to HC Andy Reid. And a tip of the hat to Charger HC Mike McCoy for guiding San Diego back to playoffs for the first time since 2009. I thought the Chargers had potential that was untapped by former HC Norv Turner and that proved to be true.

NFC East: Washington. This division is a very tough call because all four teams could conceivably win it. I’m tempted to pick the Giants because they are one of my favorite teams and the team I rooted for growing up (I lived about 10 miles away from the Meadowlands). However, I think the Redskins have the potential to be the best team the division, if, and it is a big “if”, Robert Griffin III is fully recovered and remains healthy for the entire season. Philly and Dallas also seem to have the potential to be good, but will any team this division be great? I don’t think so. I think a record of 10-6 or 9-7 will win this division.

OK, I was wrong here, but in my defense I did make Washington a very qualified pick. I noted that Redskins success was dependent upon RG3 returning to pre-injury form and, unfortunately, he was far from 100%. However, I think my overall assessment of the division was pretty accurate. The division winner wasn’t decided until the last game and they were 9-7. Congrats to Chip Kelly and the Eagles.

NFC North: Green Bay. I picked the Packers last year and I’m picking them again this year and I feel more confident about that because they seem to have bolstered their running game and that will make Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the offense even more dangerous.

Winning this division was more of struggle for the Pack than I expected it to be due to the injury of QB Aaron Rodgers, but Rogers came back and GB prevailed in the last game of the season.

NFC South: Atlanta.The Falcons looked like an elite team last year and I don’t see any reason that they will not be very good again this season. Now that New Orleans has their head coach back they should very good too and they may threaten Atlanta, but I’ll stick with the Falcons.

I’ll admit it , I did not see the Falcons collapsing in the way they did. I did think the Saints would be there in the end, but I did not see Carolina coming on so strong and winning this division. The Panthers are another team that improved a lot faster than many expected, myself included. This division should be a real dogfight for the next few years be cause I expect the Falcons to bounce back next season.

NFC West: San Francisco. Last year I predicted that Seattle would be good, but not good enough to seriously challenge the 49ers. Of course, San Francisco did win the division, but Seattle, led by superstar rookie QB Russell Wilson, definitely posed a threat to them. The Seahawks will be a strong rival again this season, there isn’t much separating these two teams and I expect both to go to the playoffs and contend for the Superbowl. I think both of these teams are among a half dozen that could win it all.

Well, I did predict that San Francisco and Seattle would be very good this season and SB contenders, but it was the Seahawks that the came back even stronger this season, while the 49ers regressed a little bit and were set back by injuries to a few key players.

AFC Conference Champion: Denver

NFC Conference Champion: San Francisco

Superbowl Champion: Denver

I’m going to stick with my pick of Denver to win the AFC, although I can’t say that I’ll be shocked if the Broncos are upset. I think the Broncos defense is just average, especially after the recent loss of LB Von Miller, Denver’s best defensive player.

In the NFC I’ve got to go with the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks have home field advantage and I don’t think any other NFC team will be able to go into Seattle and win. Not against Seattle #1 ranked defense and a very supportive 12th man, the highly animated Seattle fans.

I will address the Superbowl in a future post.

UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 – Las Vegas

Posted on by georgefattell

What might be the most anticipated rematch in UFC history is finally here as Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman faces off against Anderson Silva, the man he defeated with an absolutely stunning 2nd round knockout to win the UFC MW belt last July. There are several other interesting fights on the card, including Ronda Rousey vs Miesha Tate and Josh Barnett vs Travis Browne.

Middleweight Championship

Champion Chris Weidman (10-0) +155 vs Former Champion Anderson Silva (33-5) -165

Silva is the slight favorite for this fight, but this is fight is essentially a toss up in my view. After going back and forth several times I finally picked Weidman to retain his title, but this fight could easily go either way because both fighters are have diverse MMA skill sets and have demonstrated the ability to end fights via KO or submission. I can’t say that would want to bet much on this fight if I was in Vegas. Both fighters seemed to be calm and confident at the weigh in and at other pre-fight meetings between the two. I’m sure both men think they can and will win this bout. I expect that we will see a more serious and more focused Anderson Silva in this fight and that makes him extremely dangerous. But I think Weidman is at the top of game and in his physical prime at 29. The 38 yr old Spider Silva had not shown any signs of age up until his loss to Weidman. That defeat has made many wonder if Father Time is finally catching up with Silva. That may indeed be the case, but I think Weidman, with top notch wrestling, jiujitsu and his formidable striking would have posed a real threat to Silva at any point in his career.

Weidman wins by submission, 2nd Rd.

Women’s Bantamweight Championship

Champion Ronda Rousey (7-0) -700 vs Meisha Tate (13-4) +510

We have another rematch here. Rousey and Tate fought each other back in March of 2012 when both were fighting in Strikeforce. I remember that fight well. It was non-stop action for nearly a full round, before Ronda was able to secure an arm bar and win in her signature fashion. I’ve got to think that Tate has spent a lot time preparing to defend the arm bar, but will she be able stop the relentless Rousey? Rousey is very well conditioned and her trainers do an excellent job of preparing her. I’m not sure that Rousey deserves to be the massive favorite that she is (-700 is too high for me), but the undefeated champ should definitely be the favorite. However, Tate always shows a lot heart and will come out swinging. I would give Tate a puncher’s chance of winning.

Rousey wins by Submission 2nd Rd.

Heavyweight

Josh Barnett (33-6) -185 vs Travis Browne (15-1) +160

This is a very consequential fight in the Heavyweight division because these to fighters are attempting to position themselves for a title shot a the winner of this fight will probably only need one more victory to get a coveted opportunity to fight for the UFC Heavyweight championship. Barnett is a former UFC HW Champ, but he left the promotion to fight for other organizations way back in 2003 and returned earlier this year. Barnett made short work of UFC HW vet Frank Mir in return fight and now the up and coming Browne stands in his way, Bartnett is 36 and Browne is 31, but it seems like there is a greater difference in age than there is because Barnett has had so many fights. I think this experience gives the 6’4″ Barnett an edge and it will enable him to defeat the 6’7″ Browne, but it won’t be easy. Browne showed great will and resilience in last fight, a victory over the imposing Alistair Overeem.

Barnett wins by TKO, 2nd Rd.

Breaking The UniParty | Online Library of Law and Liberty

Posted on by georgefattell

Breaking The UniParty | Online Library of Law and Liberty.

This is an excellent article by Angelo M. Codevilla, Professor of International Relations at Boston University. As the title of this piece suggests, the country is now run by what seems to be one party. It is a party that represents big government and one that excludes those with conservative and libertarian beliefs.

Our Final Invention: How the Human Race Goes and Gets Itself Killed

Posted on by georgefattell

Our Final Invention: How the Human Race Goes and Gets Itself Killed.

Want to read a scary article? Read this. I’m glad I probably won’t be around in 40 or 50 years.

Some readers express skepticism in the comments thread, but I think there is at least a 50/50 chance this scenario could unfold, though I’m not sure about the timeline. Hard to predict just how fast some AI technology will be developed. Some current technology surpasses what sci fi writers and futurists of 1950’s to 1980’s projected at this time, but other technology has yet to match what was imagined. I’ll use 2001’s HAL as an example. Here it is almost 2014 and I don’t think any computers exist that are nearly as sophisticated as HAL. OTOH, all sorts of mobile computing devices and the internet itself I’m some respects far exceed anything envisioned a few decades ago.

I am hopeful that there will be some way of controlling advanced AI in the future, but that may indeed be impossible.

Visit to Runyon Canyon Park

Posted on by georgefattell

I jumped on the Amtrak Pacific Surfliner at Santa Fe Station in downtown San Diego last Saturday and made the trip up to Los Angeles last weekend in order to visit a few of my favorite spots in that great city.

This time I made a point of setting aside some time to visit Runyon Canyon Park (RCP) in Hollywood. The park is 160 acres of natural terrain set in the Hollywood Hills. The high points in the park offer spectacular views of Los Angeles in all directions. I’ve known about RCP for years, but for a variety of reasons I never made the trip there. It was one of those places that felt I had to devote at least 3 or 4 hours to and I think I thought it harder to get to than it turned out to be. RCP is actually a pretty easy place to get to, even by mass transit, which is the way I usually get around when I visit LA. I took the LA Metro Red Line subway from Union Station in downtown LA to the Hollywood and Highland station. From there it is a fairly short 10 block walk to RCP.

Runyon Canyon Park Front Gate
Runyon Canyon Park Front Gate
Inside Runyon Canyon
Inside Runyon Canyon
The view of
The view of Hollywood and Downtown Los Angeles
View from the top of RCP
View from the top of RCP

UFC 167: Las Vegas

Posted on by georgefattell

The UFC is presenting an excellent fight card for UFC 167 and that is only fitting because this event marks the 20th anniversary of the promotion. The UFC has come a long way from a rather modest beginning in 1993 to where it is now, which is the premier mixed martial arts organization in the world. The UFC’s popularity really started accelerating after Frank and Lorenzo Fretitta and their partner, current UFC President Dana White, bought the promotion in 2001 and proceeded to build it into the greatest professional combat sport organization that the world has ever seen. The UFC has become huge in the United States, but it has steadily grown in popularity around the world as well over the course of the last 10 years and is now a very valuable global brand.

On to the fights, at least the Main Event and the top two under that fight.

I’d like to present my picks, along with detailed analysis of each fight, but unfortunately I’m running a little late tonight and I don’t have time for that right now. The undercard is already underway and I will be leaving shortly to see the fights at one of sports bars in downtown San Diego.

Welterweight Championship Georges St-Pierre (Champion) -225 vs Johny Hendricks +250

Johny “Big Rig” Hendricks is the latest in a long line of formidable opponents. Hendricks is a former D-1 wrestling champ out of OK State and has developed into a very dangerous striker, with several big KO’s to his credit. He is a real threat to GSP, but the Canadian Champ is simply one of the most talented fighters the UFC has ever seen. GSP is always well prepared and is very disciplined. He figures out where he has the advantage over an opponent and brings the fight there. GSP will stand and trade strikes if he has advantage in that facet of the fight he will keep it standing. If there is more opportunity on the ground he is very adept at taking his opponent down. Will he be able to do that against Hendricks? I’m tempted to say no, but I can’t bet against GSP demonstrated long term success.

GSP has won 11 straight fights since his last loss in 2007. I don’t think the win streak ends here.

GSP by decision

Light Heavyweight Rashad Evans -200 vs. Chael Sonnen +185

This is an important fight for both men. Both are very experienced, crafty veterans and the winner will stay on track for a possible title fight. The loser may end up being a gatekeeper for the LHW division, which I’m sure is a role that neither man wants. As the odds indicate, this should close fight. Both fighters were outstanding college wrestlers and subsequently added other weapons to their respective MMA arsenals. I think Evans is the better striker, but Sonnen is probably better on the ground. Both a tenacious and never give up. Evans is a former LHW champ and Sonnen came very close to being the Middleweight Champ when he almost defeated Anderson Silva in one of the greatest UFC fights of all time. Evans and Sonnen have both lost to current LHW champ Jon Jones, so they have that in common too.

I really don’t think I would want to bet on this fight, but I would pick Sonnen if I had to. I was impressed by his last fight, in which submitted Shogun Rua and I think he will figure out a way to grind out a win, but I won’t be too surprised if Rashad wins either, he is the favorite after all.

Chael Sonnen by decision
Welterweight Rory MacDonald -355 vs. Robbie Lawler +320

This should be an interesting test for 24 yr old MacDonald, who is currently ranked #3 in the division by the UFC. Lawler, at 31, with record of 20-9-1, is a tough veteran of the sport and has KO’d his last two opponents. Both are very well rounded, but MacDonald has truly outstanding striking skills and I don’t think Lawler will be able to counter MacDonald’s dangerous strikes for three rounds.

Rory MacDonald wins by KO, 3rd Round.