georgefattell

The Great Oil Collapse of 2014 and the last 30 Years of Oil Trading vs Equities.

Posted on December 14, 2014December 31, 2014 by georgefattell

I have been monitoring the collapse of the price of oil the past few months, but I did not fully appreciate the magnitude of the decline until I constructed the monthly chart above so I could compare this decline to previous declines over the course of the past 30 years. I added the S&P 500 to the chart to show the divergence that has occurred between oil and equities in the past several months. As the chart illustrates, we haven’t seen oil and equities diverge in such a pronounced fashion in the last 30 years. The vast majority of the time during the last 30 equities and oil have basically moved in the same direction and it is usually with equities leading the moves up and down. Interestingly, oil and equities started to diverge in a pronounced way back in 2012, when the S&P made a higher high, but oil failed to do so. The spread continued to widen as the QE fueled stock market continued to ascend and the oil market, while taking wide swings, basically went sideways until the totally breaking down in the 2nd half of 2014.

Now, the big question is how long it will be before oil and equities resume the traditional trading relationship they had and which market will “correct” to a greater degree in order to come into an alignment that has more closely resembles the relationship that has been common during the past several decades. Will equities experience a massive sell off? Will oil bottom out soon and proceed to rally?
Or will we see something completely different this time, with oil and equities trading in a more independent fashion for an extended period of several more months or longer? I don’t think the answer is an easy one due to the complexity of the current oil market and the unprecedented circumstances influencing prices. With few exceptions oil has followed equities during the past several decades and that was certainly the case during the last major crash in oil, which followed the great stock market crash of 2008-2009. This time things are very different.

In the past OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, was able to boost oil prices simply by cutting production, but pressure by US based Shale producers have significantly reduced the ability to control the market. It appears that SA is now attempting to lower prices to a level that are unprofitable for Shale producers. But it also appears that the Saudi’s likely have geopolitical reasons for engineering this decline in the price of oil and that may in fact be the more important reason to them. Sub $60.00 oil certainly hurts the Shale producers, but it also really hurts the finances of Russia and Iran, two strategic foes.

How low will oil go? Good question. I’m not sure where exactly the bottom will be, but I think it is a fairly good bet that oil will stage a fairly significant rally once it consolidates when this sharp sell-off finally runs out of steam. However, barring another war in the Mideast that takes a LOT of supply offline I think it will probably be a long time until we see sustained $100 plus per barrel oil, because the technology to extract Shale oil isn’t going away, it will only get better in the future.

The 2014 Christmas Tree at Rockefeller Center

Posted on December 9, 2014December 13, 2014 by georgefattell

The Christmas Tree at Rockefeller Center - 2014 — The Christmas Tree at Rockefeller Center – 2014

I visited New York City last week and had an opportunity to see the Christmas Tree at Rockefeller Center for the first time in well in quite a few years, because I had been living in California since 2003. The magnificent 2014 Tree is an 85 foot Norway Spuce which was imported from Danville, Pennsylvania. It was almost a surreal image when I first viewed it from Fifth Avenue, given the way it was framed by the surrounding buildings at Rockefeller Center and the Angels you see in the foreground of this picture. As you you can also see from this picture, quite a few other people were also interested in capturing this beautiful image.

Twitter Lists

Posted on December 9, 2014December 19, 2014 by georgefattell

I only recently found out that Twitter greatly expanded the number of Lists each account can maintain and the number of accounts that can added to each list. When Twitter first introduced Lists a few years ago each account could only have 20 Lists and each of those lists was limited to 500 other Twitter accounts. Twitter bumped up the number of Lists to 1,000 and the max number of accounts in each List from 500 to 5,000. Twitter increased the limits last year, but I had no idea. A few weeks ago I decided to try to add a 21st List for my account just for the heck of it and I was very pleasantly surprised to see that Twitter let me add it. I added another to bring me up to 22 Lists in total. I figured that Twitter might have finally doubled or tripled the List limits, but then I researched the matter and found out that Twitter went far, far beyond that. Awesome!!

I love my Twitter Lists. It makes Twitter much, much more useful in my opinion. I am now up to 26 Lists and counting. I will now be able add many Lists that are very specific. I think it safe to say that I won’t need anywhere near 1,000, but I could see ultimately adding a few dozen more Lists so that I can more effectively follow the Twitter accounts related to my favorite people, places and things.

Visit to The World Trade Center

Posted on November 14, 2014December 10, 2014 by georgefattell

Another place I visited in NYC during my most recent trip to the city a couple of weeks ago was the World Trade Center. I must admit that find the new WTC complex a fascinating project. I remember the Twin Towers and the entire old WTC complex very well. As a kid growing up in northern NJ, about 15 miles away from Lower Manhattan, the old WTC defined the New York skyline for me as much as the Empire State Building. Later on in life I would pass by or through the WTC complex on a daily basis because I worked at several different places in lower Manhattan during the 90’s I passed through the old WTC complex hundreds of times because it was a major transit hub. Of course, I was saddened to see what happened to the WTC on 9/11, but I was confident that a new WTC would be built one day, one that would be even bigger and better than the original. It has been a long time in coming, but the new World Trade Center complex finally reached a major milestone with 1 WTC opening up for business a few weeks ago. The entire WTC complex remains a work progress, but things are really advancing now as major pieces are at or near completion. The opening of the nearby Fulton Street subway station a few weeks, after 10 years of construction, was another major milestone.

Here are a few pictures of the WTC from my most recent visit:

This is the view I had of 1 WTC as I emerged from the Fulton Street subway station.

The view of 1WTC from the Fulton Street subway station — The view of 1 WTC from the Fulton Street subway station

1 WTC view from the Hudson River Greenway

The Ice Skating Rink at Bryant Park – New York City

Posted on November 12, 2014November 13, 2014 by georgefattell

I had to make a trip to NYC yesterday. I spent a full day in the city and before heading home on the bus at Port Authority I took a walk over to Bryant Park where I found that the ice rink had been installed for the winter. Surrounded by soaring skyscrapers, including the iconic Empire State Building, the setting is quite dramatic.

Views of Los Angeles from Runyon Canyon in HDR

Posted on November 8, 2014November 9, 2014 by georgefattell

I took both of these pictures at Runyon Canyon in the Hollywood Hills about this time last year. I always liked these shots and recently enhanced them with Google’s Snapseed HDR filter.

Hollywood and Downtown Los Angeles from Runyon Canyon

After taking the the city shot above I kept on climbing, until I reached the top of the canyon, where the mountain views to the east and the south were stunning. In this picture if blow the picture up and look closely you can see the Hollywood sign on the left and the Griffith Observatory on the right, which is the white building with domes.

Mountain View at Runyon Canyon, Los Angeles.

Predictions for 2014-2015 NBA Season

Posted on November 2, 2014November 2, 2014 by georgefattell

The NBA has already started and I need to get my predictions in before I’m influenced by the first few games of the season. This year I’m just going to make predictions for the conference champions, NBA Finals, MVP and Coach of the Year. I can’t remember a year when I had a harder time making NBA predictions. I really don’t think there is too much separating the top 8 to 10 teams in the league and I also think that there are at least 5 or 6 truly exceptional players that are poised to have great seasons and that will be in the hunt for the MVP award.

Eastern Conference Champion: Chicago Bulls

Picking the Eastern Conference Champ was not quite as difficult as the picking the Western Conference Champ, but it was still hard because the top two teams are very close imo. I picked the Bulls to win the East, but I think the Cleveland Cav’s are potentially the better team, but that they may lose more games during the regular season because it may take a little longer to fully integrate a team that has many new players and a new coach, but once they fully adjust to playing together, look out! I think the Bulls and the Cav’s will be on a collision course when the playoffs arrive.

Western Conference Champion: San Antonio Spurs

There are probably at least 4 or 5 teams capable of winning the West and I would certainly include San Antonio, the LA Clippers, the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks in that group. I would have also included the OKC Thunder had they not recently lost MVP Kevin Durant and All-Star G Russell Westbrook to injury for an extended period. The temporary loss of those two players will prevent the Thunder for challenging for the best regular season record in the West, but if they both come back healthy that team will again be very dangerous in the playoffs.

NBA Finals: Chicago Bulls vs Los Angeles Clippers

Why did I pick the LA Clippers to make to the Finals over the Spurs and the other strong teams in the West? I think the Clippers added several valuable pieces in the offseason

NBA Champion: LA Clippers

What? The Clippers as Champs!?! Hey, believe it, it could finally happen.

MVP: Blake Griffin

Blake Griffin emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate last season, although I would agree that he was significantly behind Durant and James. I don’t think that will be the case this season.

Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers

Fall Colors – 2014

Posted on October 28, 2014November 12, 2018 by georgefattell

I has been quite a long time since I experienced a fall in the Northeast, after spending the last 10 years plus in San Diego. I loved the moderate year around temperatures of Southern California, but I can honestly say that I missed the changing seasons too and the spectacular changing colors of the trees in the NE was certainly one reason why. I’ve taken an variety of pictures here in Northeastern PA as well as Northern NJ that capture some of the beauty of fall. Here are a few of my favorites so far, with more to come in future posts.

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The Road up to College Hill, Easton, PA.

Fall Colors along the Delaware River. View North from Easton, PA.

HDR photo of the Bay Bridge in San Francisco

Posted on October 8, 2014October 9, 2014 by georgefattell

Here is another picture I took last year which I modified with the Snapseed HDR filter. This is the western span of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.

Visit to the PPL Center in Allentown, PA

Posted on October 7, 2014October 14, 2014 by georgefattell

Downtown Allentown, PA is currently undergoing major redevelopment and the lynchpin of the redevelopment of downtown is the brand new PPL Center, a sports arena/event center which is now home to Lehigh Valley Phantoms, the Philadelphia Flyers minor league hockey team. However, a lot more than just hockey will take place at the PPL Center, everything from concerts to WWE to rodeos and more. I think this venue will provide a huge boost to the economy of downtown Allentown and it finally gives all the people in the Lehigh Valley a first rate events center.

I attended the Phantoms opening game vs the Albany Devils ( the NJ Devils minor league team) last Saturday night and I must say that I was very impressed by the building. It looked nice from the outside, but the inside exceeded my expectations. The building can hold anywhere from 8,500 to 10,500 people, depending on seating configuration for the event. For hockey the capacity is 8,500, for concerts the capacity is about 10,500. I would guess that the capacity for a basketball game is over 9,000. The sight lines are very good and pretty much anywhere you sit you will have a good view of the action on the rink or court.

Inside the PPL Center — The Concourse at the PPL Center