Category: UFC

UFC 145 Atlanta

UFC 145 is really all about the main event, the Light Heavyweight Championship fight. There are some other interesting fights on the card for 145, but most MMA fans will be watching this event to see the top two Light Heavyweights in the world go at it. This fight has the potential to be one of the best of 2012.

LHW Champ Jon “Bones” Jones (15-1) vs. former LHW Champ “Sugar” Rashad Evans (17-1-1)

Jones is really unbeaten. Yes, he does have one “loss” on his record, but that was due to a technicality. He was disqualified in his fight against Matt Hamill in December,2009 for using “12-6 elbow” strikes, which are illegal in the UFC. He was winning the fight against Hamill and if not for that DQ he would have an unblemished record.

Before Jones fought Lyoto Machida few months ago, in his last defense of the UFC LHW belt, I wrote the following:

“I predict that Jones will win because I think his 6’4″ frame, overall athletic ability and quickness gives him a distinct advantage over every other LHW in the UFC. I also think Jones is always extremely well prepared by Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn for all fights. I don’t think this fight will be an exception.”

Everything I wrote then applies to this fight. Evans is 5′ 11″ and will probably be giving up at least 10 pounds to Jones at fight time.

Both fighters are very well rounded. Both are former collegiate wrestlers and excel at wrestling, but have also have very good striking ability, so both can fight well in the standup game or on the ground. However, Jones has a few especially effective weapons. The elbows of Jon Jones are especially sharp. He has ended several fights by using his elbows. His submission holds are also very dangerous. If Jones locks in a guillotine choke or a rear naked choke it is all over for Evans.

Evans trained with Jones for several years at Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico so he is well aware of Jones’ capabilities. He knows what’s coming. The big question will be if he can stop it.

Predication: Jones wins by submission, 4th Round.

Betting Angle:

The oddsmakers in Vegas have made Jones a heavy favorite for this fight, but I think they are overestimating his chances. The line is fluid, but it is roughly Jones -500, Evans +500. That means you if you bet on Jones you have to bet $500 to win $100 and if you bet on Evans you will win $500 if you bet $100.00.

I am not betting on this fight, but I think Evans is the far better value. I do think Jones will win this fight, but Evans is probably the toughest opponent that he has faced and he is capable of KO’ing Jones if he can find an opening. Easier said than done, but Evans might be able to pull it off.

The second installment of UFC on Fox will present 3 fights instead of 1 and all three of those look like they have potential to be very good fights. Of course, the HW fight in UFC 1 on Fox, pitting Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos, looked like it could be a classic and it lasted about one minute, as a result of a Dos Santos KO punch that destroyed Cain Velasquez. The quick KO’s of that kind seem to happen more frequently in the HW fights, but they can happen in any weight class, although that kind of outcome seems a lot less likely for any fights tonight.

Light Heavyweight: Rashad Evans (16-1-1) vs Phil “Mr Wonderful” Davis (9-0)

A lot is on the line in this LHW battle. The winner will probably next face LHW Champ Jon Jones. Evans is the favorite for this fight. Both fighters are very accomplished former NCAA Div I wrestlers. Evans has been in the MMA game longer and has developed a more well rounded MMA skill set at this point than Davis. Evans has good striking skills and I don’t think Davis can match him in that department. Davis is probably the better athlete, but not the better pure fighter right now. Davis may challenge for the Belt at some point in the future, but not yet. I think Evans wins by TKO/KO in the 3rd Rd.

Middleweight: Chael Sonnen (26-11-1) vs Michael “The Count” Bisping (22-3)

Sonnen is the heavy favorite and should win this fight in my opinion. Bisping, a very cocky Brit, is a very good striker and has a puncher’s chance of winning with a KO. However, in order to get a KO Bisping will have to keep this fight standing and that will be very difficult for him to do. Sonnen, a world-class wrestler, has proven he can take down anyone in the UFC and there is no reason he won’t be able to take down Bisping, who will then be subjected to Sonnen’s relentless ground and pound attack. Sonnen wins by submission in the 2nd Rd.

Middleweight: Demian Maia (16-3) vs Chris “The Hangman” Weidman (7-0)

Weidman is the favorite here, despite having much less experience. Weidman also comes from a wrestling background and has been impressive so far, but I’m not so sure I would take him in the fight. Maia has world-class jiu-jitsu and judo skills and is considered one of the the best fighters on the ground in all of MMA. Moreover, Maia has improved his striking skills markedly in the last couple of years. I think Maia wins by submission in the 2nd Round.

Dana White and the UFC have put together what appears to a pretty good fight card for the last UFC event of 2011.

Here are my predictions for the top three fights on the card:

Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks.

I think Jon Fitch wins the fight by unanimous decision. This should be tough fight between two very good fighters with similar MMA skill sets. Fitch is 21-1-1 in his last 23 fights, with his only loss coming to the great Georges St. Pierre. Fitch was a NCAA Div I wrestler at Purdue. He also has a Black Belt in Jui-Jitsu. Hendricks is 11-1 and was also a former NCAA D-1 wrestler. I think Fitch’s overall experience gives him the edge here.

Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone

Cerrone wins by KO in the 2nd round. Diaz is a very tough and aggressive fighter, with superior striking ability, but Cerrone is one the hottest fighters in all of MMA right now. Cerrone is a very rounded fighter(Muay Thai, Kickboxing, Jui=Jitsu, Wrestling) , who has been trained by Greg Jackson in Albuquerque, NM.

Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar vs. Allstair Overeem.

This is a very tough fight to call because both of these huge fighters are very capable of delivering a KO blow or submitting an opponent. Style contrast is what makes this fight interesting. Lesnar is a world class wrestler and former UFC HW Champ. Overeem is a top notch fighter who’s skill set includes kickboxing, Muay Thai and Submission Grappling. Overeem is current K-1 Kickboxing champ, as well as the current holder of the Strikeforce HW title. He is currently on a 7 fight win streak, although this the “Reem’s” first UFC bout.

Vegas has installed Overeem as the slight favorite and I think that is reasonable because he is the more well rounded fighter, with more weapons at his disposal. But, I’m still going to pick Lesnar to win here. A victory for Lesnar is totally contingent upon his ability to take this fight to the ground and then unleash his vicious ground and pound. I think Lesnar has a good chance to do that because Overeem has not yet faced a wrester of Lesnar’s caliber. Of course, this fight could very easily go the other way too. Overeem might KO Lesnar in the first 30 seconds. My pick of Lesnar is a hunch. I just think Brock has little more to fight for, coming off a loss to Cain Velasquez in Oct. 2010. He wants prove he that can be champ again and he also looks like he is in great shape after a long lay off due to surgery that was required to address his bout with diverticulitis.

POST EVENT COMMENTS

Well, I went 0 for 3 tonight. That hasn’t happened to me in a long time. OK. let’s take these fights one at a time:

Fitch vs. Hendricks: Hendricks wins by KO 12 seconds into the 1st Rd.!!! There is no way I saw that coming. Fitch has only been KO’d once before and that was at the beginning of his career back in 2002. First round KO’s happen all the time in the UFC, but usually not to guys like Jon Fitch, who is normally careful and methodical. Maybe it was just lucky. We will see how both fighters fare going forward. Fitch was making his way toward another title shot, but now it appears that Hendricks is a lot closer to that opportunity.

Diaz vs. Cerrone: Diaz won by unanimous decision. This was a tough, hard fought battle and Diaz simply outclassed Cerrone with his great boxing. Cerrone effectively countered at times with very hard sweeping kicks that put Diaz down quite a few times, but was never able to capitalize and move the fight to the ground. I think that was a big mistake, because Diaz clearly demonstrated he was the better boxer in the 1st Rd.

Lesnar vs. Overeem: Overeem wins by TKO in the 1st Rd. Although I picked Lesnar to win this fight, I did point out that Overeem was very capable of winning this fight via a KO in the 1st Rd. and that is what he did. After seeing Lesnar get crumpled by a hard liver kick that Overeem delivered I really don’t think he has ever fully recovered from the surgery he had to treat his bout with diverticulitis. Lesnar looked like he was in good shape as he entered the Octagon, but he was very tentative during the fight and did not exhibit the explosiveness he showed in his early UFC fights. His take down attempts were very weak and they easily defended by Overeem. Lesnar announced his retirement immediately after the fight and I think that is the right decision for him. I’m sure he doesn’t want to be a “gatekeeper” for the HW division.

Now Overeem will now fight UFC HW Champ Junior Dos Santos and I think he find the Champ to be a much more formidable fighter than Lesnar. Dos Santos is young, very quick, and an excellent striker. Although Overeem was impressive in his UFC debut, I don’t think he will be able to defeat JDS. I will be very surprised if JDS is not the favorite to win that fight.

Unfortunately, the quality of the card diminished somewhat when the main event, Georges St. Pierre vs Carlos Condit, had to be cancelled due to a knee injury sustained by St. Pierre a few weeks ago. Too bad, that fight had the potential to be a very good one. I would have picked GSP to win, as would most other UFC fans, because he is just so well rounded as a fighter. Like most of the really top notch fighters in the UFC GSP is multi-dimensional. He can fight well standing up, with strikes and kicks or he can take the fight to the ground and use his superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu.

However, I think Condit would have had a decent outside shot to pull an upset because he has serious KO power in his fists and he would have posed a real threat to GSP in my opinion.

I think the UFC plans to reschedule this bout in few months. Some think the the winner of Penn vs Diaz deserves the next crack at GSP, but think that would unfair to Condit, who is on a 4 fight streak, with an overall record of 27-5. Condit has earned his shot at GSP.

The remaining fights on the card for 137 are still in place and there are some good ones, but none as interesting as GSP vs Condit. The top three fights on the main card are as follows:

Welterweight BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz

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Heavyweight Cheick Kongo vs Matt Mitrione

Heavyweight Mirko “CroCop” Filipovic vs Roy Nelson

I think Penn, Mitrione and Nelson all win, but I won’t be shocked if all three fights go the other way because these fights are all toss ups in my opinion. I wouldn’t want to bet real money on any of them, especially the HW bouts.

The Penn vs Diaz is the most interesting fight, by far, because Penn is an All-Time UFC great and Diaz, a former UFC fighter, left the UFC back in 06 and won a championship in the rival Strikeforce organization, which the UFC acquired earlier this year. Both these guys hit hard and they really seem to dislike each other so that should make for a good bout.

POST 137

I went 1-2 in my picks, but I think I should gone 1-1-1, if not 2-1. Why? because the Kongo- Mitrione fight should have been a draw, if not a win for Mitrione. It was a really sloppy fight. I think Mitrione won the first two rounds and Kongo won the third.

BJ Penn and CroCop also announced that they will retire after losing their respective bouts. I agree with both of them. I think it is time for both of these MMA warriors to end their days inside the cage.

I don’t make as many picks for UFC fights as I once did. I love watching the fights, but the sport has grown and there a lot more fighters around than there were several years ago and I don’t have to time to follow a lot these guys. I hate making picks when I’m unfamiliar with one or both fighters, which seems to happen more often to me these days. It is hard enough to predict a lot of these fights when you do know both fighters fairly well and reduces it to a pure guessing game when you don’t. However, unfamiliarity will not be a problem for me tonight, at least when it comes to the main event of UFC 135.

The main event pits newly crowned Light Heavy Weight (205 lbs) champ Jon “Bones” Jones vs. former LHW champ Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and it has the potential to be classic battle. The 24 year old Jones may not even be in his prime yet, but he seems to outclass every fighter in the LHW division. However, in MMA, just as boxing, there always seems to be a fighter out there someplace who knows how to beat a seemingly invincible opponent.

Rampage is a significant underdog in Vegas for this fight, and I would say that is justified because Jones has not revealed any true weaknesses against 14 previous opponents. The real question that remains about Jones is his chin. No one has really clocked him yet, because they haven’t been able to get inside on him or they quickly find themselves on the mat, eating
elbows on the way to a TKO. Rampage may finally be the guy that tests Jones’ chin because he is an exceptional striker who hits with a lot of power. Rampage has KO’d 14 of his previous 40 opponents. OTOH, Jones may have the most complete skill set in all of MMA. He wrestles and strikes extremely well, and he is a truly exceptional athlete with a 6’4″ frame that gives him an advantage against all other 205ers.

Rampage has a punchers chance of winning, but in the end I think Jon Jones will prove to be too much for Rampage to handle. I say Jones wins in the 3rd round, by submission.

POST FIGHT ANALYSIS

Jon Jones won by forcing Rampage Jackson to submit early in the 4th round (rear naked choke). So, this fight went pretty much as I expected. Jones dominated the fight, winning every round imo, by using his full arsenal of MMA weapons: strikes, kicks, elbows, and superior wrestling. Rampage tried to put himself in a position to deliver a KO blow, but just couldn’t do it, due to Jones elusive quickness.

Looks like Rashad Evans will be next up for Jones, and frankly I don’t think he will fair any better than Rampage. There doesn’t appear to be any UFC fighters in the LHW division that can deal with Bones Jones. I might be years before Jones loses a fight. That’s how good he is.

Heavyweight Championship Fight: Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez

UFC HW Champion Brock Lesnar faces another tough opponent in Cain Velasquez , who holds a record of 8-0 in the UFC. Velasquez is a former D-1 All-American wrestler (ASU) who is also powerful striker and skilled all around martial artist. He can hurt an opponent with strikes, kicks or his great wrestling moves. However, Velasquez gives up significant size to Lesnar and I think that will prove to be decisive in this fight. At 6′ 3/1 2 and 270 – 280 pounds Brock is 2 1/2 inches taller and 30 to 40 pounds heavier than Cain and is just as athletic, if not more so, imo.

Las Vegas has made Brock Lesnar the favorite (he is -150, to Velasquez’a +120) to win this fight and I would agree. If I to bet on the outcome of this fight I would bet on Lesnar. Will I be shocked if Cain wins? No. I am well aware that he can deliver blows that will stop any fighter in the UFC. But Cain is not invincible either. Yes, he is undefeated in his eight fights but no one that he has fought is anywhere near as good as Lesnar.

Prediction: Lesnar by TKO inside of 3 rounds.

Welterweight Fight: Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

This will be Jake Shields first fight in the UFC since leaving Strikeforce.  Dana White & Co. have decided to give Shields a very challenging opponent in Martin Kampmann, who has a record of 17-3, with victories in his last two fights. Kampmann is a good all around MMA fighter, but he prefers to rely on his striking to win.

Shields is former All-American college wrestler. He has also been trained in Jiu Jitsu by Cesar Gracie. Shields ground skills are top notch and his recent victory over former UFC legend Dan Henderson is proof of that.

This fight will be a classic battle between an elite wrestler and skilled striker who prefers to stand up and trade blows. The fighters with elite wrestling backgrounds have been winning a lot recently in the UFC and I think Shields will continue that trend.

Prediction: Shields by decision.